Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN AK THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO EXIT SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR SRN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING OVER THE CNTRL/NRN CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE DURING MON. THIS WILL YIELD PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...WINDS REMAIN
WEAK...AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
THUS...MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE BULK OF THE
SHORT TERM PACKAGE. PREDICTABILITY/FORECAST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL BE PUSHED OFF
TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY OVER THE HYDER AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL HAVE OCCLUDED WITH A TRIPLE POINT ALSO
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH OTHER
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE RAINFALL AND BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AND 15-25MPH OVER
COASTAL LAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
TUESDAY MORNING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
10-20MPH WINDS OVER LAND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE SW
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN TO A BROAD FEATURE. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER. AS
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WET WEATHER WED. MORE BREAKS IN THE PRECIP ARE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THURS WITH JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THROUGH THE MID RANGE AS MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LARGER DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN START THURS
NIGHT...SO TRANSITIONED TO MORE NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM THEN FALLS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN