Gale Warning 201, NWS Juneau, AK

951 
FZAK67 PAJK 160414 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
814 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-162215-
814 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SE TOWARD HAIDA
GWAII SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  THEN BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK. A GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-162215-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
814 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR
LESS. W SWELL.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF
140W...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE...EXCEPT SE GALE
35 KT NORTHERN PORTIONS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

004 
FZAK67 PAJK 161149
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BUILD INTO
THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF 140 W...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. E OF 140 W...WINDS LIGHT
INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. W
SWELL EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57 N...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. S OF
57 N...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

108 
FZAK67 PAJK 161701
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
900 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-171100-
900 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL BUILD INTO
THE PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-171100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
900 AM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF 140 W...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. E OF 140 W...WINDS LIGHT
INCREASING TO SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57 N...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. S OF
57 N...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 



$$

113 
FZAK67 PAJK 162330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-171400-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-171400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 16 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL.
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS.

$$

891 
FZAK67 PAJK 171130
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-180100-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE NE OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ310-180100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 17 2014 

.TODAY...W OF 140 W...SW WIND 30 KT. E OF 140 W...SW WIND 30 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN EARLY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT OR LESS. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN AK THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO EXIT SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO FAR SRN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING OVER THE CNTRL/NRN CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE DURING MON. THIS WILL YIELD PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...WINDS REMAIN
WEAK...AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.
THUS...MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS USED FOR THE BULK OF THE
SHORT TERM PACKAGE. PREDICTABILITY/FORECAST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT WILL BE PUSHED OFF
TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE YAKUTAT AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY OVER THE HYDER AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL HAVE OCCLUDED WITH A TRIPLE POINT ALSO
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH OTHER
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE RAINFALL AND BE
HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE OUTER COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH THE FRONT AND 15-25MPH OVER
COASTAL LAND AREAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
TUESDAY MORNING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
10-20MPH WINDS OVER LAND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE SW
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN TO A BROAD FEATURE. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER. AS
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE WET WEATHER WED. MORE BREAKS IN THE PRECIP ARE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THURS WITH JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH THROUGH THE MID RANGE AS MODELS WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LARGER DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN START THURS
NIGHT...SO TRANSITIONED TO MORE NATIONAL WPC GUIDANCE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SHORTER TERM THEN FALLS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

GARNER/FERRIN