Gale Warning 8, NWS Juneau, AK

357 
FZAK67 PAJK 161230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
344 PM AKST WED JAN 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NE PAC WILL MOVE
N INTO THE SW GULF TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT REACHES THE
PAMD AREA BY LATE THU MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N THRU THE
GULF TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GULF
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE OUTER COAST THU AFTERNOON. USED THE
12Z GEM AS IT HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS...PTYPE...AND WINDS.
THE LOW AND FRONTS HAVE A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION SIMILAR TO THE
MONDAY STORM BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG. STILL LOOKS LIKE
FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP FOR THE NRN GULF COAST TONIGHT. THE HEAVIER
PRECIP SHOULD REACH MOST OF THE NRN PANHANDLE THU MORNING...THEN
TO THE S-CENTRAL AND ADJACENT OUTER COAST THU AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS HEAVY THOUGH AS THE MONDAY SYSTEM IN THE
AREAS THAT HAD LANDSLIDES. STILL...GIVEN THAT THE GROUND IS FAIRLY
SATURATED THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE LANDSLIDES IS THERE FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE INCLUDING THE OUTER COAST FOR THU. THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL NOT BE AS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PAGY
ZONE AND THE NW PART OF THE CHILKAT VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE HEAVY PRECIP RATES LATER TONIGHT AND
THU MORNING WILL HELP MAINTAIN A NEAR ISOTHERMAL BOUNDARY LAYER IN
THOSE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP SNOW UNTIL THE PRECIP RATES
DECREASE AND WINDS INCREASE IN THOSE AREAS LATER THU MORNING.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HAINES ZONE BUT
MENTIONED IT IS FOR NW OF THE CHILKAT RIVER BRIDGE. ALSO KEPT THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PAGY ZONE FOR WHITE PASS.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NRN AREAS THIS
EVENING BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE S LATER TONIGHT AND THU. STILL
EXPECT GALES FOR MOST OF THE GULF WITH A SMALL AREA OF STORMS FOR
MARINE ZONE 52 LATE TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN. MOST INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO
THU...EXCEPT THE FAR NRN AREA WILL DECREASE FROM 30-40 KT TO BELOW
SCA BY LATE EVENING. MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS WILL SEE SCA WINDS
THU WITH GALES FOR THE FAR NRN AND FAR SRN AREAS. WILL MENTION
STRONG WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THU...AND FOR THE PAHN/PAGY
AREAS THIS EVENING THEN AGAIN THU.

OTHERWISE...PUT LOW TEMPS DURING THE MID-EVENING TIME FRAME FOR
MOST AREAS AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT.
TEMPS ON THU WILL GET WELL INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...THINKING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE REMAINS THE SAME WITH
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PATTERN FAVORS A
STORM TRACK RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE ALEUTIANS WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONTS CROSSING THE GULF AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THERE WILL BE A FRONT IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLE EVERY COUPLE DAYS. DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH EACH ADVANCING FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE LIQUID
FORM. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WHERE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A 955 MB LOW WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THEN PUSH EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE STEADY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY SENDING THE NEXT FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS FRONT
REACHES THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE FRONTS WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

WITH FRONTS AFFECTING THE AREA EVERY OTHER DAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG, EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. 40-60 KT LOW LEVEL JETS
WITH EACH FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AM EXPECTING CLARENCE STRAIT TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATER
FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MAKES
LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENS OVER THE AREA, INCREASING WINDS IN THE N-S
CHANNELS. THIS PATTERN OF WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH EACH
FRONT PASSAGE. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS OUT OVER THE
GULF.

USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM THROUGH DAY 4 BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO THE NEW WPC DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN CONTINUED WET AND WARMER
PATTERN THAN NORMAL HOWEVER DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF EACH INDIVIDUAL FRONT REMAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THURSDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-053.

&&

RWT/TPS