Gale Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

595 
FZAK52 PAJK 141231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL PASS TO THE EAST TUE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND IT. WEST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. W SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
16 FT LATE. W SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. W
SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT. SW
SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN
IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 14 2014 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT
SUBSIDING TO 20 FT LATE. SW SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 16 FT.
SW
SWELL IN THE MORNING. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
346 PM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE MAJORITY OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WAS
SPENT BOOSTING WINDS IN LINE WITH SOME REALLY IMPRESSIVE
850 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...USING THE 70 PERCENT RULE...I SUPPOSE.
BUT THESE WILL BE DICEY... AS WINDS HAVE NOT SHOWN THEMSELVES
YET. HOWEVER, ECMWF, THE MODEL OF CHOICE HAS SEEMINGLY HELD BACK
THE FRONT A BIT FOR TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD GALES
WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH...AND THEN
SPREAD RAPIDLY UP TO JUNEAU LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. CLARENCE STRAIT
SHOULD REACH STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LINCOLN ROCK GUST
TO HURRICANE FORCE. STAY OFF THE WATER IS THE MESSAGE WE ARE
TRYING TO COMMUNICATE. THESE STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH RELENTING
NEAR CROSS SOUND LATE TONIGHT, WILL CONTINUE IN THE OTHER
ZONES...THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
PLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
850 MB WINDS MORE EASILY TO THE SURFACE, SO CONFIDENCE ACTUALLY
RISES IN WESTERLY WIND FORECASTS TOMORROW...WITH SMALL CRAFT TO
25 AT YAKUTAT BAY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TIP JET INTO CROSS SOUND LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT TO BE
OUTDONE...NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO RISE TO STORM FORCE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A POST-FRONTAL RESPONSE TO THE LEE SIDE LOW
THAT STILL FAIRLY VIGOROUS IN THE CANADIAN YUKON. WHILE ECMWF
ADVERTISING GRADIENTS BETWEEN JUNEAU SKAGWAY OF -6.5 MB...ADD
50 PERCENT TO THIS TO ACCOUNT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THIS
SHOULD EASILY REACH STORM FORCE. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL AND CENTRAL
ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH JUNEAU'S AUKE BAY GETTING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLIES...AND LIKELY THE AIRPORT, TOO. EVEN DOWNTOWN AND
DOUGLAS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWEST FOR AWHILE.

 WITH THE TARDINESS OF THE FRONT...THE PRECIP SHIELD MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LATE, TOO...BUT HAVE NOT TAMPERED WITH QPF GRIDS AS THIS
WAS FRUITLESS EFFORT. WE HAVE BEEN COMMUNICATING HEAVY RAIN FOR
DAYS. AND THE SNOW WILL PILE UP HEAVY...INLAND AREAS OF LYNN
CANAL. BUT AS LYNN CANAL SOUTHERLY SURGE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN
THOUGHT...THE TEMPERATURES AT SEA LEVEL HAVE WARMED UP IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO 40 DEGREES. THIS FORCED US TO MIX IN RAIN EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AT SEA LEVEL. CONFIDENCE HAS FALLEN IN
WINTER STORM WARNING, HOWEVER, NOT ENOUGH TO PULL IT. WHILE NOT
NOTED IN THE ZONES, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
NEAR THE CHANGEOVER ZONE, BUT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE EXTREMELY
SHORT-LIVED. CHANGED THE RANGE OF THE SNOWFALL AND EXPANDED IT TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RAIN MIXING IN SOONER AT SEA LEVEL...NOW GOING
FOR 2 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE ROADS AWAY FROM THE WATER AND HIGHER IN
ELEVATION.

 HYDROLOGY WILL BE MONITORED TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING
IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY
ALARMS. IT WILL BE VERY WET AND A SLOG FOR THOSE LIVING ON
WET-SLUSHY STREETS. IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL EVERY
SIX HOURS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COAST MOUNTAINS.
STAY HOME TONIGHT UNLESS YOU MUST PLAY IN YOUR RUBBER BOOTS.

.LONG TERM...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A FAIRLY DEEP TROF
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF AK. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE FLATTENED OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT
SHOULD REBUILD QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
AREA UNDER A FAIRLY MILD AIRMASS DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER. USED THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THU...THEN WENT WITH LATEST WPC FOR THU NIGHT
ON OUT FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE LONGER RANGE WAS
TO WARM TEMPS SOME THRU EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

 FOR TUE NIGHT...AREA WILL BE IN POST FRONTAL STRONG WLY FLOW.
PRECIP SHOULD HAVE ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA BY TUE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY HIGH WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NRN INNER CHANNEL
AREA. DECIDED AGAINST ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT DUE TO ONGOING
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THAT AREA. THE W-SW FLOW MAY ALSO DRIVE
SOME LARGE SWELLS INTO THE GUSTAVUS AND AUKE BAY AREAS.

 FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL RACE NE INTO THE
NRN GULF WED. THIS WILL BRING A MORE STEADY PRECIP TO THE NRN
GULF COAST AND POSSIBLY THE NRN PANHANDLE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SW GULF WED NIGHT...AND THIS WILL SPREAD A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP IN...BUT ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN GULF COAST THE MOST. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY
TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PANHANDLE AS WELL...AND GIVEN THE MILD TEMPS
IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. SHOULD SEE A BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE GULF WED NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

 FOR THU INTO FRI...WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FAR
ERN GULF THU BUT MAY GET HELD UP ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI.
STILL...FRONT SHOULD KEEP FAIRLY GOOD THREAT FOR PRECIP OVER
MAINLY THE NRN AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A
DRYING TREND FROM THE S LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI AS UPPER RIDGE
SHARPENS UP.

 FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROF MAY FLATTEN THE
RIDGE SOME AND CAUSE A BIT OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W...BUT OVERALL DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASSES HEADING
INTO THE AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS UP SOME FOR
THIS TIME FRAME...AND FURTHER LIMIT THE MENTION OF ANY SNOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ023-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053.

&&

JWA/RWT