Gale Warning 321, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL HOLDING ALL ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION WEATHER AWAY FROM PANHANDLE HOWEVER THAT HAS STILL
LEFT LOTS OF OTHER FUN FOR THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS FLOWING THROUGH
RIVER VALLEYS FROM INTERIOR STILL LEAVING A FEW AIRPORTS GUSTY.
ALSO THE WINDS OUT OF THE STIKINE RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN PICKING
UP DUST AND RIVER SLIT AND BLOWING IT OUT TO THE INNER CHANNELS.
THIS HAS REDUCED SOME VISIBILITY IN THE WRANGELL AREA.

THE THERMAL INVERSION STILL PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
AS WELL PREVENTING MIXING FOR A SIGNIFICANT AREA AS WELL. AS SUCH
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE REGION HAS BEEN LIMITED.
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE GONE
WITH VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE LAST NIGHT OR TWO.

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TENAKEE INLET AREA OF
EASTERN CHICHAGOF AFFECTING TENAKEE SPRINGS. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
AS UNTIL THERE IS SOMETHING TO BREAK IT UP THINK IT WILL CONTINUE.
WITH THE WEB CAM IMAGES WE HAVE ACCESS TO, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER B.C. AND THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS ALONG
WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE 25-35KT SE WINDS OVER THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AND CONTINUE SOME OF THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS LIKE
THROUGH CROSS SOUND. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOC WITH THE LOW SKIRTS BY BUT
ONLY EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY...NOT SURE IF IT
CAN EVEN BE CALLED A BREAK WITH HOW LITTLE IMPACT THE SUNDAY FRONT
HAS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP. THE LOW IS
PART OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF LOWS EXTENDING ALONG A TROUGH TO A
PARENT LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE PLACING LOW CENTERS ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS IN DIFFERENT PLACES BUT ALL HAVE THE SAME IDEA OF
THE TROUGH MOVING NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED EVEN FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTH...AND THUS WHEN THE PRECIP WILL MOVE IN.
FOR EXAMPLE THE 00Z ECMWF SPED THINGS UP CONSIDERABLY WITH PRECIP
REACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 12Z RUN AND
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE IT MOVING IN UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE KEPT WITH THIS LATER IDEA BUT THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
P-TYPE...MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT VERSES THE AFTERNOON MAKES A BIG
DIFFERENCE. HOWEVER...EITHER WAY THIS SYSTEM IS WARM WITH 850MB
TEMPS ALL ABOVE ZERO TO +6C AND WOULD RESULT IN ALL RAIN OR A
QUICK CHANGE OVER IF IT DID START OFF SOLID. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPERATURES IS LOWER THAN NORMAL SO RESULTING SNOW
LEVEL/P-TYPE FORECAST HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

MODELS EVEN START TO DIFFER WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
PROGRESS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE LOWERS EVEN MORE THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THEY ALL HAVE
TROUGHS/WAVES ROTATING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MEANING A
RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051.

&&

BEZENEK/FERRIN

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