Wind Advisory 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

896 
WWAK73 PAFG 102317
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
217 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2014

AKZ226-110600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-141111T0000Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0035.141111T0000Z-141111T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
217 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATION...IN PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS LOCALLY GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
532 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HRS. CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
PACKAGE DEAL WITH POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION TODAY VIA FZRA AND
STRONG WINDS. A HANDFUL OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TODAY...AND WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...DENALI...EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND THE DELTANA AND
TANANA FLATS. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED CHINOOK WIND EVENT IS
UNDERWAY ALONG WITH LOCAL WINDS FROM THE TANANA VALLEY JET. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUST RECORDED YESTERDAY WAS 75 MPH...REACHED BY BOTH
THE TEXAS CONDO OBS SITE NEAR THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY AND THE
ANTLER CREEK RWIS NEAR THE PARKS HIGHWAY. OTHER SITES RECORDED
LESSER PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE
ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE MCGRATH
UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT 00Z MON MEASURING 58 KTS FROM THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 707 HPA.

ALOFT...A LARGE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER
AK AT 300 HPA AND 500 HPA. A 500 HPA UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF NURI IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
ACROSS THE BERING SEA WHILE A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...YUKON PROVINCE...AND
THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE 500 HPA LOW WEST AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE EAST HAS PROMPTED A STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH. WHEREIN...STRONG WINDS AT 850 AND 700 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST...SOUTHWEST...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AK THROUGH WED. THE LOCATION AND FOCUS OF THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WITH TIME AS THE TROUGH FILLS IN WHILE THE RIDGE
BUILDS AND SHIFTS WEST MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY BREAKS INTO A
570 HPA HIGH LATE WED ACROSS THE YUKON PROVINCE. IN
ADDITION...WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE
USHERED INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK. GUIDANCE SHOWS WARM 850
HPA TEMPERATURES...BETWEEN +3 TO +8 C...ABOVE THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY WED AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...POST-TROPICAL NURI HAS BEEN ANALYZED WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 960 HPA NEAR 57N 176W 06Z TODAY BY THE OPC AND IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A SFC HIGH IS JUST OVER GREAT BEAR LAKE.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW...AND IS ORIENTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SEWARD
PENINSULA...ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND INTO THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE SLOWLY WITH TIME. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MOVED TO ABOUT
375 NM WSW OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 970 HPA BY
THIS EVENING. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY STATIONARY NEAR THAT LOCATION THROUGH TUE EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND START MOVING SOUTHEAST
TODAY.

NORTH SLOPE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ALONG THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT SPILLS THROUGH THE
BROOKS RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND MORE
OFFSHORE TODAY AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWEST.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW BEFORE TURNING EASTERLY AGAIN LATE TUE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES IN THE DENALI AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE ZONES...GIVEN THE CONTINUED SUPPORT ALOFT FOR THE ONGOING
CHINOOK EVENT. AS SUCH...WIND ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED FOR TODAY.
THE WIND ADVISORY ALSO WAS EXTENDED FOR THE DELTANA AND TANANA
FLATS...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR DELTA JUNCTION ON
SOUTH ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
LETTING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL AND CHINOOK
WINDS WILL START WINDING DOWN LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT WE MAY SEE
SOME INFREQUENT GUST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW THAT EXCEED WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE PROBLEMS OF THE DAY ARE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND. THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED PRECIP DEVELOP AND FILTER INTO THE
AREA. OF WHICH...A CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR INTERMITTENTLY IN PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY
RECEIVED FZRA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THERE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS...PROMPTED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN EFFECT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

ET NOV 14