Small Craft Advisory 196, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKST SUN NOV 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
NURI IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND.
THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY MON EVENING AS IT MOVES TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE NAVARIN. A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN SLOWLY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHWEST CANADA
AND THE EASTERN ALASKA MAINLAND. THE STRONG RIDGE WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 850
MB TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS +4 TO +8 DEGREES CELSIUS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SURFACE...
A 956 MB LOW...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON NURI...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
BY MON EVENING THE STORM WILL WEAKEN TO A 970 MB LOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE NAVARIN. SOUTHEAST GALES OVER MARINE ZONES
PKZ215 AND PKZ220 WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE BY EARLY MON MORNING.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT. RAIN OR MIXED RAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR MON...AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MAINLY SCATTERED MON NIGHT.

A 980 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT 100
MILES WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY WED EVENING AND TO NEAR
CAPE NAVARIN BY THU EVENING. THIS MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS...NORTON SOUND...AND THE BERING SEA AS FAR NORTH
AS THE BERING STRAIT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN WEST
COAST AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR TUE
NIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS WED. GALES
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY LATE
WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING.

THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
WILL REMAIN DRY. STRONG SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH TUE...
BUT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
WIND GUSTS AT ANTLER CREEK AND TEXAS CONDO HAVE REACHED
THE 65-69 MPH RANGE AT TIMES TODAY. MODELS INDICATING MAXIMUM
WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AT 700 MB AT NO MORE THAN 45-50
KT...BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG GAP WIND CONTRIBUTION DUE TO THE
WELL DEVELOPED LEESIDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. WINDS
ALOFT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT...WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
LEESIDE TROUGH.

NORTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES...AS HIGH AS 558-564 DECAMETERS...BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

MAINALND.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

RF NOV 14