Wind Advisory 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

655 
WWAK72 PAFG 082119
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1219 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

AKZ227-091500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0031.141109T1200Z-141110T1500Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
1219 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...PEAKING 
  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

858 
WWAK72 PAFG 091344
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
444 AM AKST SUN NOV 9 2014

AKZ227-092145-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-141110T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WI.Y.0033.141109T1500Z-141110T1500Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
444 AM AKST SUN NOV 9 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY. 

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

ET

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
106 PM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...ALL AGREE IN THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN INTO THE MID TERM.
INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE
REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI AND THE DECAYING LOW NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND. NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...SO WILL TAKE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SOUTH FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND AND
WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL SWING NORTH TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS AT IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH
ON SATURDAY EVENING...BUT AGAIN PRETTY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. THE 486 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUPER
TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ROTATE NORTH TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT 850
HPA...SOUTHERLY FLOW MEANS CHINOOK FLOW...MEANS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SO LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER 6 DEGREES CELSIUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SURFACE...RIDGING FROM THE EAST OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEE SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL WEAKEN
SATURDAY. GRADIENT THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS
NURI MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. NURI CURRENTLY NEAR ATTU AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT THEN
EAST TO THE DATELINE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SWINGING INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MONDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WOW...AS QUIET AS IT CAN GET UP
NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE...BUT STATUS CAN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
ANY TIME SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THAT CHANGES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE BIT OF ACTIVITY
HERE...BUT WITH NURI STAYING OUT BY THE DATELINE IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A WIND ISSUE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WINDS COMING UP ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND OVERNIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH...AND THOSE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. LIGHTER
WINDS AS YOU CONTINUE TO THE WEST COAST...BUT STILL A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY AND
SPREAD SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAY START OFF
AS SNOW BUT EXPECT IT TO TURN TO RAIN WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. A SECOND...WEAKER...FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
AREAS MAY EVEN SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW CLOUDS WITH DECAYING WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...AND SOME STRATUS IN THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY THAT WILL JUST NOT GO AWAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOUTH FLOW IN AND ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
KICK WINDS UP A BIT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH...THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ245.

&&

SDB NOV 14