Small Craft Advisory 193, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1218 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
485 DAM LOW AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL NURI NEAR
53N/176E IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD THEN RECURVE NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD SUN NIGHT AND MON. FARTHEST EASTWARD POSITION WILL BE
NEAR 57N/177W AT 9 PM SUN WITH A 496 DAM CENTER. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN WITH SOUTHERLY
CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE. 700 MB WINDS ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT 40-50 KT. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM...TEMPERATURES FROM 850 MB TO 950 MB WILL WARM TO
NEAR 0C OR WARMER OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND SUN
AND MON.

SURFACE...
EXTRATROPICAL NURI NEAR 53N/176 WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD...THEN RECURVING TO THE NORTH AND WEST SUN NIGHT
AND MON. THE FARTHEST EASTWARD POSITION WILL BE NEAR 57N/177W AT 9
PM SUN WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 955 MB. BY 9 AM TUE...THE
STORM WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 970 MB WITH THE CENTER NEAR 59N/180W
BY 9 PM MON. AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
INCREASES SUN NIGHT AND MON...THE LEESIDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED...A LEESIDE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...AS WILL THE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH MON. FOG WILL BE A PESKY
ISSUE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A FEW
SITES REPORTING VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE OR LESS.

OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND MON...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF NURI.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED SUN NIGHT AND BECOME
MAINLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW THEN BECOME MIXED AS TEMPERATURES WARM.

IN THE ALASKA RANGE...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
IN PASSES. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ISOBAR ORIENTATION IS FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUATION OF THE TANANA VALLEY JET IN THE DELTANA AND
YUKON FLATS....WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH IN THE MOST WIND PRONE
AREAS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

&&

RF NOV 14