Small Craft Advisory 87, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
125 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THERMAL TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE WEST
COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND THEN EASTWARD
INTO CANADA.

HIGH ALOFT OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WITH INVERTED RIDGE RUNNING SOUTH
TO MACKENZIE BAY. CHINOOK FLOW TO OVERTAKE THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY AS THE
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST MEANDERS EASTWARD BUT RETRACTS
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.

THE PACIFIC HIGH WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN
FINALLY CREATING THE AUGUST PATTERN FOR ALASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TO MID WEEK.

A WAVE OFF OF THE LOW IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF AND CREATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST...TO INCLUDE
THE SEWARD PENINSULA DUE TO THE THERMAL TROUGH WITHIN THE LONG
WAVE TROF THROUGH SUNDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR HAS BEEN DRYING AND THE
WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER ON SUNDAY DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF AUG 14