Small Craft Advisory 86, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM TANANA TO DAWSON IN
CANADA...MOVING NORTH TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE 4AM
SAT...AND TO BARROW TO BARTER ISLAND 10 PM SAT THEN DRIFTING
NORTH. LOW OVER THE FAR WEST ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
MCGRATH 4AM SUN AND TO THE UPPER KOBUK VALLEY 4AM SUN. VORTICITY
CENTER MOVING TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN 10PM SUN THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THROUGH MON AM.

SURFACE...COLD OCCLUSION FROM MOUNT MCKINLEY TO 60 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE MOVING TO NOME TO BETTLES TO ARCTIC VILLAGE 10
AM SAT THEN TO BERING STRAIT TO KIVALINA TO BARTER ISLAND 10 PM
SAT DISSIPATING. 1023 MB HIGH FAR NORTH OF BARROW DRIFTING EAST
AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH MON.

MODELS...AGREE PRETTY WELL IN OVERALL PATTERN IN SHORT TERM...AND
IN MEDIUM TERM BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN BUILDING IN RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR..THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER
ON THE RIDGE...THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

NORTH SLOPE...SOME LESSENING IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG COAST BEGINNING
EARLY SAT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER AREA. SOME RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA LATER SAT INTO SUN WITH THIS FEATURE.

WESTERN ALASKA...SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWEST WITH COLD OCCLUSION
OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING SAT AM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUSION. BEHIND OCCLUSION
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ISOLATED AND SHOWERS JUST
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED...CONTINUING INTO MON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MON
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...EXPECT RAIN NORTH OF OCCLUSION TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. AMOUNTS OF UP TO
1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS THERE SAT...THIS MAY BRING
SOME RISES TO SMALL STREAMS. BEHIND THE OCCLUSION SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. ON SATURDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
INTO SUN. SHOWERS LIKELY SOUTHEASTERN PORTION SUN NIGHT AND MON
WITH VORTICITY CENTER TRACKING NORHTEAST OVER THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA WHERE FUELS
REMAIN BURNABLE. ELSEWHERE MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT AND SUN MAINLY
WEST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. SOME WIND THROUGH AK RANGE THROUGH SAT
WITH HUMIDITY NEARING 30 PERCENT...THOUGH FUELS REMAIN NOT
BURNABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAMS DRAINING THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE...MAY SHOW SUBSTANTIAL RISES IF ENOUGH RAIN
FALLS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT. EXPECT LESS THAN PREVIOUS SHIFTS
WITH ONLY AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED NOW. RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM
DROPPED MUCH LESS OVER THE TANANA YUKON UPLANDS TODAY THAN WE
THOUGHT EARLIER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL AUG 14