Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
124 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 500 HPA A 572 DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE 200 NM NORTH OF
WRANGELL ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST AS A 558 DAM LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE. A 528 DAM LOW OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC WILL DIG
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS IT ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND WILL INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A STILL MOIST AIR MASS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES RANGE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DRY OUT THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 75
NORTH AND 160 WEST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WILL PRODUCE A GALE FORCE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH BUT
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND CONSIDERABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
OPEN WATER FETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA MAY PRODUCE HIGH
SURF ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF BARROW BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATING SURGE
VALUES AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE MSL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE BUILDS IN JUST NORTH OF THE COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
LONG DURATION GALE FORCE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE AND COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HIGH SURF POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT
IS BETWEEN PABA...PAAD AND PASC. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ALONG A LINE FROM PAEG TO PAGA AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER
YK DELTA. LIFTED VALUES ARE AGAIN AROUND MINUS 2 AND CAPE VALUES
IN THE 300 TO 600 RANGE. THE LOWER YK DELTA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES IN THE .5 TO 1.5 INCHES
RANGE ARE LIKELY TO FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN FACES OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

CCC AUG 14