Gale Warning 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

432 
FZAK52 PAFG 062108
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-071230-
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 987 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 985 MB OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-071230-
NORTON SOUND-
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-071230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-071230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-071230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
108 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

JK AUG 14

503 
FZAK52 PAFG 071138
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-080245-
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 986 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND WILL FILL TO 989 MB AND
BE LOCATED NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ200-080245-
NORTON SOUND-
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-080245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-080245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-080245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
338 AM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

CCC/RM AUG 14

229 
FZAK52 PAFG 072245
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-081200-
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 983 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR
COLD BAY 4PM SAT. A 1000 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE NEAR THE YUKON DELTA 4AM SAT. A 982
MB LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SUN THROUGH
TUE.

$$

PKZ200-081200-
NORTON SOUND-
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-081200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT E WINDS 20 KT OFF THE YUKON
DELTA. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 5 FT OFF THE YUKON DELTA. FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-081200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-081200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
245 PM AKDT THU AUG 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JL/DJH AUG 14

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
124 AM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 500 HPA A 572 DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE 200 NM NORTH OF
WRANGELL ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST AS A 558 DAM LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE. A 528 DAM LOW OVER THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC WILL DIG
SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS IT ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND WILL INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ALASKA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A STILL MOIST AIR MASS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES RANGE
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DRY OUT THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AND
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 75
NORTH AND 160 WEST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE WILL PRODUCE A GALE FORCE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND EVENT ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH BUT
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND CONSIDERABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
OPEN WATER FETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA MAY PRODUCE HIGH
SURF ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF BARROW BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM SURGE MODELS INDICATING SURGE
VALUES AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE MSL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE BUILDS IN JUST NORTH OF THE COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
LONG DURATION GALE FORCE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE AND COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HIGH SURF POTENTIAL. GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT
IS BETWEEN PABA...PAAD AND PASC. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ALONG A LINE FROM PAEG TO PAGA AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER
YK DELTA. LIFTED VALUES ARE AGAIN AROUND MINUS 2 AND CAPE VALUES
IN THE 300 TO 600 RANGE. THE LOWER YK DELTA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES IN THE .5 TO 1.5 INCHES
RANGE ARE LIKELY TO FALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN FACES OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS FOR ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

CCC AUG 14