Small Craft Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 AM AKDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LOW NEAR BARROW MOVING SW TO THE YUKON DELTA BY SUN THEN
PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE OVER NW
CANADA WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN AK SUN AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE.
THIS MEANS THE SHOWERY PATTERN WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL WARM THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILD.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM FORT YUKON TO DENALI WILL MOVE TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE SOUTHEAST BY 4AM FRI. THIS IS CAUSING AN ENHANCED AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF .10-.30.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NW ALASKA WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK
PASS TO ANVIK BY 4PM FRI AND THEN OVER NE AK TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF
.10-.30. THIS MAY CAUSE 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE
TONIGHT ABOVE 4000 FT.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE WILL SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST OF AK TONIGHT
AND INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE FRONT AND AREAS
OF RAIN TO SPREAD WEST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SAT.

A FOURTH SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF AK TO THE SE INTERIOR
SUN WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SE INTERIOR SUN.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +8C SE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON... TO
+10C SAT...AND TO +12C OVER THE NE INTERIOR SUN WHILE TEMPS FALL
BELOW 0C ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND SAT.

SURFACE...
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR BARROW WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THE LOW TO INUVIK TO OLD CROW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
ANAKTUVUK PASS TO ANVIK SAT PM AND PERSIST THERE INTO SUN. THIS
WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS..WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG
THIS FEATURE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A THERMAL TROUGH FROM BETHEL TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO MCGRATH TO TANANA TO
ARCTIC VILLAGE SAT THEN PERSIST INTO SUN. EXPECT ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH
TO THE FRONT THROUGH SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE A BIT TOO WEAK ON LOW ALOFT NEAR BARROW THOUGH
GFS DEEPENS IT A BIT QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS SO PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION. GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM AND ECMF AND BUILDS THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR A BIT
MORE SLOWLY ON SUN AS A RESULT. THE ECMF IS FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE SE INTERIOR ON
SUN...AND THE GFS IS FAST THAN THE NAM DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE
ALOFT. PREFER THE GFS ON THIS FASTER SHORT WAVE MOVEMENT.

THE NAM PRECIPITATION MISSES CURRENT CONVECTION IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA WHILE THE GFS AND ECMF SHOW IT PRETTY WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS IDENTIFIED ABOVE.
RED FLAGS IN THE SE INTERIOR MAY NOT OCCUR TODAY DUE TO THE LACK
OF WINDS BUT MOST LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE IN AK RANGE PASSES.
WARMING AND DRYING MUCH OF EASTERN INTERIOR SAT AND SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH WATER AND SIGNIFICANT BANK EROSION ON THE KOYUKUK RIVER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AT HUSLIA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

JB JUN 14