Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2014

Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

September 10, 2014

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Sep 10, 2014, 1:51 PM AKDT. It was in force for 38 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Sep 10, 2014, 1:51 PM AKDT (21:51 UTC)
Expired: Sep 12, 2014, 3:21 AM AKDT
In force: 38 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

958 
FZAK52 PAFG 102151
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-111300-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 991 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL DISSIPATE THU. A THIRD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-111300-
NORTON SOUND-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-111300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-111300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-111300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
151 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

CF/EWP SEP 14

3 follow-up statements

486 
FZAK52 PAFG 111200
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120000-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 991 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CENTERAL BERING SEA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN DISSIPATE EARLY FRI. A FORMER TROPICAL
LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS 10 PM THU THEN TO THE
PRIBILOFS AT 975 MB 4AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 958 MB 4AM
SAT AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ200-120000-
NORTON SOUND-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-120000-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-120000-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-120000-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB/JL SEP 14

650 
FZAK52 PAFG 112126
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-121230-
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A FORMER TROPICAL LOW EARLY
FRI. THE FORMER TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE PRIBILOFS AT
975 MB 4AM FRI. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 958 MB 10PM FRI AND THEN
BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ200-121230-
NORTON SOUND-
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-121230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-121230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-121230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
126 PM AKDT THU SEP 11 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

CF/JK SEP 14

246 
FZAK52 PAFG 121121
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130300-
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 977 MB FORMER TROPICAL LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL DEEPEN TO
960 MB 60 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 PM FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY THROUGH 4PM SUN WHILE WEAKENING TO 984 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO DALL POINT AT 10 PM
FRI AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTH TO KOTZEBUE 4PM SAT.

$$

PKZ200-130300-
NORTON SOUND-
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-130300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-130300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
321 AM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB/JL SEP 14

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 10, 2:45 AM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 10, 2:45 AM AKDT, 11 hours 6 minutes before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
FENGSHEN AND THE BERING SEA LOW FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE LONG
TERM. THE ECWMF REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...STREGTHENING THE
RESULTANT LOW TO A 968 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. THIS HAS BRIEFLY
PAUSED THE CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
ZONE 224. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE YUKON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE CHINOOK FLOW.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS...ONE DIVING EASTWARD AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WHILE THE OTHER PART SHOOTS
NORTH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE INTERIOR
MAY STAY DRY TONIGHT...BUT THINKING THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING
THE DRYING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT A BIT...THUS WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST...SHOWERS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY
AND SHIFT NORTH...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND DELTA...AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE OCCLUSION MOVES
OVERHEAD.

A MODERATE TO STRONG CHINOOK WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN ARE ABSORBED INTO THE THE
EXISTING LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE CHINOOK WILL BE STRONGEST
FRIDAY...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM OVER THE INTERIOR ...WITH H850
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +11C TO +12C LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

LTH SEP 14

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 10, 4:30 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFG		24 hr
Sep 10, 1:51 PM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFG		62 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2014 Every small craft advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.