Gale Warning 60, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
FENGSHEN AND THE BERING SEA LOW FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO THE LONG
TERM. THE ECWMF REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...STREGTHENING THE
RESULTANT LOW TO A 968 MB BY SATURDAY MORNING.

EARLY THIS MORNING...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING NORTH AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. THIS HAS BRIEFLY
PAUSED THE CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
ZONE 224. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TREK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE YUKON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TO DAMPEN THE CHINOOK FLOW.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PARTS...ONE DIVING EASTWARD AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WHILE THE OTHER PART SHOOTS
NORTH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE INTERIOR
MAY STAY DRY TONIGHT...BUT THINKING THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING
THE DRYING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT A BIT...THUS WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST...SHOWERS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

AN OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THURSDAY
AND SHIFT NORTH...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS THE LOWER
YUKON VALLEY AND DELTA...AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE OCCLUSION MOVES
OVERHEAD.

A MODERATE TO STRONG CHINOOK WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN ARE ABSORBED INTO THE THE
EXISTING LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE CHINOOK WILL BE STRONGEST
FRIDAY...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM OVER THE INTERIOR ...WITH H850
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +11C TO +12C LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

LTH SEP 14