Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

008 
WWAK62 PAFG 121432
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
632 AM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

AKZ227-130000-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0012.140512T2000Z-140513T0600Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
632 AM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227.

* HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

079 
WWAK62 PAFG 122049
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1249 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

AKZ227-130600-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
1249 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227.

* HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

793 
WWAK62 PAFG 130426
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
826 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014


AKZ227-130530-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
826 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT AT 500MB...MODELS ARE ALL IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS STATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH QUICKLY ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA AND NORTH OF BARROW IS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATES THE
INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED ACROSS
EASTERN INTERIOR ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH STARTS MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY
BEFORE EXITING ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. THE MODELS DO
KEEP THE NORTH SLOPE RATHER ACTIVE AFTER WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
FOLLOWING WEEK COMPARED TO THE GFS. GOOD TO JUST NOTE THAT EVEN
WITH THE DIFFERENCES...BOTH STILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED WAS LOCATED OVER WRANGLE
ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST 75N AND 173W BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BERING
STRAIT AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA AS ANOTHER 1011MB LOW DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF WRANGLE ISLAND ON MONDAY MORNING AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES EAST TO BE LOCATED 1009MB AT 75N AND 157W ON TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAILING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND BE LOCATED EXTENDING ALONG THE DALTON
HIGHWAY BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. THERE AREA SOME SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON EXACT TIMING BUT SHOULD INTO CANADA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...PRECIPITATION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA
COASTLINE THIS MORNING FINALLY ARRIVED AT BARROW ABOUT 3 HOURS
LATER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER RATHER CLEAR SKIES FOR AREAS FROM
NUIQSUT AND EAST ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST. NOT AS MUCH
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ANTICIPATED...JUST
SOME RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY ALONG THE BACKSIDE EDGE AS SEEN IN THE
IR IMAGERY FROM WAINWRIGHT TO BARROW. THE NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE. ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PROBABILITIES PRECIPITATION
ALONG BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. HOWEVER THE
FORM OF SNOW OR RAIN OR SOME SORT OF MIX WILL BE SOMETHING TO EXAM
CLOSER. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG
THE DALTON HIGHWAY AS TRAVEL ALONG THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IN
ZONE 206. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING
AND LOCATIONS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BERING STRAIT COAST WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE MILE OR LESS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST CAN BE EXPECTED. CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASE FROM SEWARD NORTHWARD AS A STRONGER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A
MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR INDICATING A
5 TO 8 DEGREE WARMING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS ANTICIPATED. WITH
SOME PRESCRIBED FIRES BURNING SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION HAS CAUSED
FOR SOME SMOKE TO FILTER FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTHWARD INTO ISABEL
PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS
OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MONDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING 4 TO 6C ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACT ON OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS OR MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THE COLDER AIR
WILL USHER IN RATHER QUICKLY WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING AS WELL. LEANING AT THIS TIME FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY DECREASING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE COLD FRONT
SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PERHAPS RAIN AND SNOW MIXED AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THE
RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
ANTICIPATE MAXIMUM RH VALUES TO RANGE IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS MAY COME UP
SLOWLY...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ABOVE 25 MPH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

MAK MAY 14