Brisk Wind Advisory 158, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA HAS FLATTENED OUT AND
CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WRANGELL ISLAND DIGS SOUTH AND EAST TO BE LOCATED ALONG A
PPIZ TO PAGM LINE THIS EVENING AND ALONG A PABR TO PAOT TO PAUN
LINE TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE
EAST AND WILL BE ALONG A PASC TO PATA TO PAMC LINE BY NOON TUESDAY
AND ALONG A PABA TO PAFA TO PATK LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE STATE TO THE EAST TUESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE
BUILDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST RAPIDLY LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE YUKON
AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

ON THE SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE THIS
EVENING WITH A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE RECEIVING AROUND A QUARTER OF
AND INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 4500 FT ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPE OF THE BROOKS
RANGE SO MOST THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. SNOW LEVELS DROPS
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS LEVELS DROPPING TO 1500
FT IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
2000 FT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY TO DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH
ATIGUN PASS ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE...SNOW AND RAIN ON TAP AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCHES RANGE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SO EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR PABA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
ON THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AND TEMPERATURES
DROP.

IN THE INTERIOR...ONGOING LOW RH RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL MORPH INTO
STRONG WIND RED FLAG WARNINGS TOMORROW AS MIN RH LEVELS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO RED FLAG CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN ALASKA SOUTH AND EAST OF
PFYU AS CAPES PUSH OVER 200 AND LI'S BRIEFLY BECOME NEGATIVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING LOW RH RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE MORPHED INTO STRONG WIND
RED FLAG WARNINGS TUESDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF PFYU LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID PRECIP AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND WILL FALL ON SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RUN OFF ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC MAY 14