Brisk Wind Advisory 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE NE PACIFIC OVER EASTERN ALASKA INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND
A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTON SOUND TO ANVIK WILL
MOVE TO KOTZEBUE TO DENALI PARK BY 3AM SAT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NE INTERIOR SAT PM. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW OCCURING ALONG
THE TROUGH. EXPECT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY SW OF THE TROUGH.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -5C SOUTHERN AK TO -16C NE AK.
TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLOWLY THROUGH SAT THEN UP TO 0C SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS WILL GIVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

SURFACE...
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR NOME WILL MOVE TO NEAR KOTZEBUE AS A 1022 MB
LOW BY 3AM SAT AND THEN DISSIPATE. WINDS 25KT NEAR THE LOW AND
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW WEAKENS.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE WILL DISSIPATE SAT. EAST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL DECREASE THROUGH SAT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS.
EAST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUN.

A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL BUILD INTO
SAT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR SAT.

A STORM IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ITS WEATHER FRONT TO THE AK
PEN AND N GULF OF ALASKA BY 3PM SAT...TO BETHEL TO DENALI TO
CHICKEN BE 3AM SUN...AND TO THE YUKON DELTA TO GALENA TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE BY 3PM SUN. EXPECT EAST WINDS 30 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
LOW VISIBILITY OVER INTERIOR HIGHWAY SUMMITS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SAT PM INTO SUN. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SUMMITS.

EXPECT 1-2 INCHES IN THE SE INTERIOR AND 2-4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE FRONT BUT AT THIS POINT
IT LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT IF IT DOES OCCUR.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS 30-50 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AT 500 MB THROUGH MON.
MODELS INITIALIZE A BIT TOO WEAK ON SURFACE LOW OVER YUKON DELTA
BUT LOW WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY SO WILL NOT BE A MAJOR IMPACT.
SURFACE SOLUTIONS SIMILAR THROUGH SUN. PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
SIMILAR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 14