Brisk Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
543 AM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LONG WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH
OVER EASTERN AK TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. A WEAK LOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO NEAR PRUDHOE BAY SUN AND THEN
PERSIST INTO MON. AFTER THAT IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH A TROUGH
REMAINING SOUTHWEST TO THE BERING SEA.

SURFACE...WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING SEA INTO FAR EAST RUSSIA TODAY BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. 971 MB
LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVING TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND MON AM
WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SAT EVENING AND TO BETHEL TO TANANA TO EAGLE 3AM
SUN...THEN TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE 3PM SUN. AT 9AM MON THE OCCLUSION
WILL EXTEND FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO KOTZEBUE TO PRUDHOE BAY AND
NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY CLOSE IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MAIN FEATURES
ALOFT AND WITH OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH OVER THE AREA. IN MEDIUM
TERM THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THU THEN
ECMWF IS MORE AGRESSIVE IN DROPPING A LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC TO THE EASTERN ARCTI COAST FRI NIGHT.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COASTS
HAVE DIMINISHED SOME BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE THIS PM AS THE
GULF OF ALASKA OCCLUSION MOVES NORTH WHILE THE HIGH OVER THE
ARCTIC ONLY DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING. NOT MUCH SNOWFALL EXPECTED UNTIL
OCCLUSION MOVES OVER EASTERN ZONES MON...BY THEN WINDS WILL HAVE
DECREASED. SO AT THIS POINT HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
SNOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS IN THE EVENT THEY GUST HIGHER.
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUN AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP THERE. DO NOT EXPECT EXTREMELY LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW HOWEVER.

WESTERN ALASKA...SPOTTY FLURRIES OVER INLAND AREAS CURRENTLY WITH
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THESE AREAS WILL DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS.
MORE CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH WITH INCOMING OCCLUSION ALONG WITH
SNOW...AND EXPECT SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH
MON...AMOUNTS HIGHEST OVER THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE INLAND AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE OCCLUSION MOVING NORTH WILL
ONLY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO THE
FAIRBANKS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. BETTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES INTO MON...HIGHEST
OVER SUMMITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS PM CREATING LOW
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW OVER SUMMITS...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MUCH LESS SOUTH
OF FAIRBANKS...MAINLY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUSION. THEN BEHIND IT
THE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE INCREASE AND SHIELD THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FROM FURTHER SNOW. WINDS INCREASING IN ALASKA
RANGE PASSES SUNDAY BEHIND OCCLUSION AND WILL DIMINISH SUN
NIGHT...EXPECT SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ235.
&&

JL JAN 14