Brisk Wind Advisory 68, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKST MON FEB 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG RIDGE COVERING THE NORTH BERING SEA AND NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL RETROGRADE AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THU AM. THIS LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER DOSE OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THU OVER THE ALASKA RANGE DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AS THE FLOW WILL BE EMBEDDED
AROUND THE COLD LOW ALOFT.

SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT FROM BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE WILL MOVE
TO BARTER ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE TO THE BERING STRAIT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THEN TO FORT YUKON TO MCGRATH AND SOUTHWARD AT 9AM TUE. THE
OCCLUSION WILL THEN DRIFT EAST TO FORT YUKON TO DENALI PARK WED AM
AND DISSIPATE. SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH
SLOPE WITH UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON THE COAST AND COASTAL
PLAIN BUT UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST TO 25 MPH AND PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO 25 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. AS
THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR SNOWFALL WILL BE
SPOTTY AND BE MOST LIKELY WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND FORT YUKON AS THE
FRONT HANGS UP JUST TO THE WEST BEFORE DISSIPATING.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL MOVE
FROM THE THE HIGH ARCTIC SOUTH TO BARROW AROUND 6AM TUE AND THEN
TO BARTER ISLAND TO KIVALINA 3PM TUE...TO BARTER ISLAND TO BETTLES
TO UNALAKLEET 3AM WED...AND FROM INUVIK CANADA TO TALKEETNA 3PM
WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WITH
THIS FEATURE...PROBABLY A BIT LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. AND SOME
SPOTTY SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE MAINLY DEVELOPING
BETWEEN AMBLER AND FORT YUKON...SOUTH TO GALENA TO NEAR
FAIRBANKS. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES AS 850
MB READINGS DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT VALUES.
COMPLICATING THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE CLOUDS
BROUGHT IN BY THE FRONT AND KEPT SWIRLING AROUND AT LEAST THE
INTERIOR AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS SOUTH...NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL COOL DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN BROOKS RANGE
PASSES AND THIS IS ONE AREA TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT CONDITIONS
MOVE INTO ADVISORY LEVELS.

MODELS...AGREE PRETTY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES...THOUGH THE NAM DOES NOT BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW...OR AT LEAST AS WIDE OF AN AREA OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS EXPECTED BY THE NAM WHEN THERE IS NORTH
FLOW OVER THE AREA. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THE ECMWF INDICATES MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE GFS
RETAINS A WEAK FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

JL FEB 14