Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 AM AKST TUE JAN 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS FROM
THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC SLOPE
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. CURRENT MODELS LOWERING
RIDGE HEIGHTS 5-8 DAM THROUGH THU WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
BECOMING REORIENTED ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
BUT REMAIN NEAR FREEZING BY THU...STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL DAMPEN OUT CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT MOVES TO NORTON SOUND
WED MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
WEAKENING FEATURE.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ALASKA NORTHWEST COAST
THU...GRADUALLY DAMPENING. A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF SOMEWHAT COLDER
AIR...BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND SOME AFTER
THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE SNOW...WITH 1000-850 MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING.

FOG WILL CONTINUE IN VALLEY AREAS OF ZONE 224 SOUTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS.

WINDS ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST HAVE SUDDENLY SPIKED UP...
MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN OLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY THROUGH MID DAY...
THEN DECREASING TO BRISK WIND SPEEDS.

REBUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND IS
EXPECTED BE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK BECOMES SOMEWHAT
MORE UNCERTAIN...ECMWF/CANADA MODELS PUNCHING A WEAK SHORT WAVE
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SAT WITH NARROW BUT HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND BERING. GFS SOLUTION SPLITS OFF
A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE WHICH THEN
MIGRATES NORTHWARD INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA BY SUN NIGHT. RMOPS 500
MB PROG INDICATES MEAN RIDGE POSITION PERSISTING OVER THE AK
MAINLAND OUT THROUGH DAY 10...THEN MIGRATING WESTWARD INTO THE
BERING SEA WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING IN COLDER
AIR FROM THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
SOMEWHERE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JAN 14