Brisk Wind Advisory 180, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1232 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z. GOOD AGREEMENT SHORT TERM...AND
THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH MODEL RUN ON THE
REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI BEING CLOSER TO THE DATELINE AS IT
LOSES ITS ENERGY. LEANING ON THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE
TODAY...BUT WILL NUDGE THEM TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY BENIGN TODAY BUT WILL
TURN EASTERLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MOVES EAST OVER THE ARCTIC NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. A 520 DAM CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND
MOVE EAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 499 DAM
LOW NORTH OF KAMCHATKA EXTENDS SOUTHEAST OVER ATKA THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC
PUSHING SOME COLD AIR SOUTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 10 CELSIUS TO 20 CELSIUS BELOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE COLD TO LEAK SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OR
WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. OUT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LOOKING
FOR A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND WITH NURI MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA.

SURFACE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC AS THE 1032MB HIGH 400NM
NORTH OF KUPARUK SINKS SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. A WEAK DECAYING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS IT GETS INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF AND DEEPEN TO 969MB
250NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE TO
200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 982
MB...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATES SATURDAY MORNING. THE
REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WILL MOVE TO 150NM EAST OF ATTU BY
FRIDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN NEAR THE DATELINE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONTINUE WITH A LOT OF STRATUS ON
THE COAST AND IN THE PLAINS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG
PRODUCT AT 05/1557Z AND STILL SHOWS UP ON THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT
BAND AT 05/1913Z. AS RIDGE MOVES EAST OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...THEN INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS THE HIGH
CENTER MOVES TO MACKENZIE BAY. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN
AREAS...SO WILL ADD IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THE COLDEST AIR
IS EAST OF THE RIDGE SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STILL QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IN
THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT 05/1557Z. REMAINDER OF THE COAST MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY STRATUS...BUT WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE AREA NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH. INLAND AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SOME OF THE COOLEST SO FAR.
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY SO A SLOW CLIMB TO
WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND DOWN
IN THE KANTISHNA FLATS...UP IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TODAY SHOULD ERODE A LITTLE BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME REMNANTS OF IT AROUND. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL TONIGHT TO SOME OF
THE LOWEST SO FAR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VALLEYS...BUT
AS THE HIGH IN THE ARCTIC MOVES TO MACKENZIE BAY EXPECT WINDS OVER
THE HILLS NORTH OF THE TANANA RIVER AND EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY
TO INCREASE SO LOOK FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AND SOME LOCAL
BLOWING SNOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODELS CONTINUE TO EDGE
THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON NURI WEST SO IMPACTS DECREASE THE
FURTHER WEST IT IS. BIGGEST IMPACT AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OFFSHORE AREAS...MEANING NO COASTAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

SDB NOV 14