Brisk Wind Advisory 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
256 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO
RECEDE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH AND
EAST OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ONTO THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR POINT HOPE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED 100 NM NORTHWEST OF PAWI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 200
NM NORTH OF PABR MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE LOCATED 350 NM NORTH EAST OF PABR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETREATS TO THE
NORTH.

ON THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP INLAND ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RAIN TRANSITIONED QUICKLY TO
SNOW SHOWERS POST FRONTAL WHERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE HOISTED FOR ZONES 201 AND 202 AS A 1004 MB
LOW 200 NM NORTH OF POINT HOPE DEEPENS TO 997 MB THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH EAST TO BE LOCATED 100 NM NORTHWEST OF PAWI
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH TO CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW. LOCAL SNOW PACK IS GLAZED WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW PACK LOFTING
BUT FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONE 201 AND
THIS EVENING IN ZONE 202. PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS WEST
OF PABR. DENSE FOG ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS CLOUDS LIMIT HEATING TO THE MID 60S
AND MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN DROP INTO THE 20S PERCENT TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GFS
AGAIN DEPICTING BULLISH AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WITH COLD FRONT. PREFERRED A NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SLOWER TIMING OF
COLD FRONT OVER THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
WEAKEN TODAY AND RETREAT TO THE SOUTH TO BE NEAR THE NORTH SLOPES
OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
THIS EVENING. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 30
PERCENT TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS TODAY WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
PERCENT TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SLOW RISES ON INTERIOR RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH FREEZING
LEVELS AGAIN NEAR 10K FT...HOWEVER AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR FREEZING LEVELS
WILL DROP AND MELT OFF AT ELEVATION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ICE CONTINUES TO BE MELTING IN
PLACE WITH ONLY MINOR ICE JAMS AND RURAL LOWLAND FLOODING NOTED
ALONG INTERIOR RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC MAY 14