Brisk Wind Advisory 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
158 PM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY COLLAPSE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. SEVERAL PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING WILL
BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MIDWEEK AND
UNDERCUT MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL COOLING OF TEMPERATURES. ALL MODELS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A VERY COLD
UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH ARCTIC LATE IN THE
WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A DYING OCCLUDED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTON SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART AS IT
CROSSES THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
UPLSOPE ENHANCED AREAS OF THE EASTERN NULATO HILLS. A POOL OF
ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT MAY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE SNOW WILL SPILL OVER THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON
MONDAY AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THE ARCTIC COAST AS WELL. A
SECOND TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BERING SEA LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHOT
OF SNOWFALL. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BRUSH ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS ALONG
THE NULATO HILLS AND COULD BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM KALTAG
SOUTH TO ANVIK BY MONDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS SLOWLY STARTING TO SLACKEN SOME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE AND GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER SUMMITS AND
CHANNELED AREAS OF THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE IS PRODUCING
ADVISORY LEVEL CHINOOK WINDS THROUGH PASSES BUT THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE GAP COMPONENT BOTH
WEAKEN. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EASTERN ARCTIC ON MONDAY BUT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST AT
BARTER ISLAND WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME FALLING SNOW FROM THE
APPROACHING OCCLUSION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

EWP JAN 14