Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

826 
WWAK41 PAFC 050111
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014

...HEAVY SNOW FOR THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
PUSH A WEATHER FRONT NORTHWARD INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...AND WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THOMPSON PASS AND PORTIONS OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

AKZ131-051415-
/X.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
411 PM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON AKST SUNDAY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 21 TO 30 INCHES. STORM
  TOTAL ACCUMULATION 27 TO 32 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES FROM 
  HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

* WIND...NORTHEAST 10 TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
  WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PRODUCING HEAVY AND WET
  SNOW...AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOWFALL
  RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
  SUBSTANTIALLY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
  END AS THE WEATHER FRONT DISSIPATES LATE SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT
  SNOW WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY SUBSTANTIALLY. 
  TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE SEVERELY LIMITED IN
HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

AKZ141-051415-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
411 PM AKST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
AKST SUNDAY SOUTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 6 TO 11 INCHES. STORM TOTAL
  ACCUMULATION 7 TO 14 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
  THROUGH THE PASSES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
  PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPERING TO
  LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WEATHER FRONT
  DISSIPATES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

KOCHEVAR

564 
WWAK41 PAFC 051352
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
452 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

AKZ131-052100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
452 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 7 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES FROM 
  HEAVY SNOWFALL. 

* WIND...EAST 15 TO 30 MPH.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY AS A
  WEATHER FRONT DISSIPATES. 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TRAVEL WILL BE
  DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE SEVERELY LIMITED IN
HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

AKZ141-052100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
452 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
AKST TODAY SOUTH OF GLENNALLEN...

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION UP TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING TO
  LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT DISSIPATES.

*IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

JAM

095 
WWAK41 PAFC 051541
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
641 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014


AKZ131-051645-
/X.CAN.PAFC.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
641 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 


$$

AKZ141-051645-
/X.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140105T2100Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...
PAXSON...SLANA
641 AM AKST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST FRI JAN 3 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AND PROGRESSIVE LEADING TO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE ALASKA
REGION. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS TRACKING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL AND ULTIMATELY INTERIOR ALASKA.
THIS IS PRODUCING AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A WARM
NOSE IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES IN
ANCHORAGE...BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH ARE ALL SNOW.

THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG
FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES STORM FORCE
WINDS ON THE FRONT EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER POWERFUL SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA IS BRINGING STRONG
WINDS TO THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN WHAT FORECAST MODELS HAD INDICATED...SITTING
SOMEWHERE AROUND 960 MB THIS MORNING. THUS...INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WERE EXPECTED...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
CENTER). THIS LOW IS TRACKING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SO EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE FIRST NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH TRACK OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. PREFER THE 12Z GFS WHICH IS A NICE
MIDDLE GROUND AMONG ALL THE SOLUTIONS AND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING
THE REGION TODAY WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING
A VERY BRIEF BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC STORM. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SHIRT-WAVE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE...SO EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO HANG AROUND.

UNLIKE MANY OF THE WARM-UPS THIS WINTER WHICH HAVE PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT
RELATIVELY WARM AS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES. THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT
FREEZING RAIN TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM ANYWHERE. THERE MIGHT BE A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS...BUT
THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONG WINDS (PRIMARILY OVER MARINE AREAS) AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN BERING
WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ELONGATES SPREADS OUT OVER THE GULF AND
BRISTOL BAY. THIS ELONGATION WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE WARMEST AIR FROM
HEADING INLAND. ONCE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT FINALLY DO PUSH
INLAND ON SUNDAY THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
A HUGE WARM-UP. EVEN SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FRO MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOP DRYING ON
THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS TO THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE KUSKOKWIM AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF PRECIP AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH...BUT EXPECT VERY LITTLE QPF. TEH HEAVIEST
PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY ENOUGH NEAR
SEA LEVEL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS VALDEZ WHERE THE COLD AIR USUALLY HANGS IN
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH IN THIS CASE WON'T OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HEAVY WET SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM
VALDEZ ON UP TO THOMPSON PASS. A BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THOMPSON PASS...BUT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WIND TO CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH
TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. WITH A DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR SITTING IN
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN EXPECT THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
GLENNALLEN DOWN TO THOMPSON PASS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS AREA.

THE LOW CENTER WILL EXIT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING ON
SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM WILL ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND STORM LOOKS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE
BOTH WIND WISE AND PRECIP WISE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF WARM AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE BERING
SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET AIDING
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOWS. THE GENERAL TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL BE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THEN CURVING NORTHWARD
TO THE EASTERN BERING AND EXITING BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECT GENERALLY
MODERATE STRENGTH LOWS...VERY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON WEAKENING/BREAKDOWN OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC
NEXT WEEK WITH FAST MOVING STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE GULF. THIS MORE
SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 131.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...119 120 130 131 132 138 150 155.
         GALE WARNING...125 136 137 139 141 160 165 170 172 174 178
                        179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 14