Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

531 
WWAK41 PAFC 202044
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1244 PM AKDT THU MAR 20 2014

...TEST...

.TEST.

AKZ145-202145-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140321T0500Z/
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1244 PM AKDT THU MAR 20 2014

...TEST WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. TEST.

TEST.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
538 AM AKDT THU MAR 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO ASSERT ITS DOMINANCE OVER
THE GREAT LAND THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT SAVE FOR SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. EVEN AS THE HIGH
BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN COAST THE WEAKENING TROUGH CAN NOT
MAINTAIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF
COAST WHERE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SLACKEN AS A RESULT. SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS A PAIR OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE EASTWARD
BUT ARE PREVENTED FROM ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS BY THE BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GREAT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR
FEATURES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THE BLOCKING HIGH ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE SEVERAL UPPER LOW
CENTERS DANCE AROUND ONE ANOTHER OVER THE AKPEN/NORTHERN PACIFIC.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A FULL BLOWN REX BLOCK BY THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR HANDLE ON THE PATTERN AND SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE STOUT HIGH REMAINING OVER THE BEAUFORT/CHUKCHI AREA WITH AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS UPCOMING
REGIME AND EXPECT THE BLOCK TO STAGNATE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND ALLOWS FOR THE LATE MARCH
SUN TO DO SOME WORK. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW BETWEEN HERE AND THE
PANHANDLE COULD BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT
SHOULDN'T AFFECT TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. CLEAR
SKY AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO DECOUPLE IN MOST PLACES
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS...EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MAINLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND.
THE FRONT OVER THE BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHILE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
EASTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE...BUT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED
OVER THE MAINLAND...BRINGING CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOW TRACKS LOOK TO
STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...WITH WEAKENING FRONTS THROUGH THE BERING SEA THROUGH THIS
TIME. HOW FAR EAST THE FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
TUESDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 138
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL/MBS MAR 14