Small Craft Advisory 240, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
133 PM AKDT THU MAR 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THERE IS A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH OVER
ALASKA WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THERE IS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. ANOTHER LOW
IS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS COMBINED WITH A STABLE WEATHER
REGIME WITH A BLOCKING HIGH...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL HAVE
A RISK OF A SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN GULF LOW SLIDES
JUST TO THE SOUTH. KODIAK ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR SEA LEVEL SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA AFTER TONIGHT. THE NEXT LOW SLIDING WEST
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE PENINSULA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL HAVE WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST (TO
NEAR THE PRIBILOFS) THAT IT WILL BRING UP INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH
NORTH INTO MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 131 138 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG MAR 14