Storm Warning 135, NWS Anchorage, AK

610 
FZAK51 PAFC 170009
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171330-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 50 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE LATE SUN NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA 
MON EVENING WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF HOMER AT 982 MB TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-171330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-171330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-171330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER 
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND 
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-171330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-171330-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-171330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-171330-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-171330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-171330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-171330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-171330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-171330-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-171330-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ138-171330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-171330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-171330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-171330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKST SUN NOV 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKST SAT NOV 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE BLOCKING
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION...FROM THE THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA TO SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
THE YUKON TERRITORY. STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS ARE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND THE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. MINOR
DIFFERENCES ARISE AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST TIME FOR THE MODERATE
STRENGTH LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUN NIGHT. THE NAM
IS THE OUTLIER AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WILL BE USED FOR
THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG BLOCKING
HIGH JUST TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY WAVES
MOVING UP TO THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THESE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTH UP COOK INLET SUNDAY AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOG ISSUES WILL PERSIST IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION. THE FOG
CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN COOK INLET WILL LESSEN DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MIXING FROM THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS
THE FIRST WAVE MOVES UP FROM THE GULF THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COOK INLET
REGION. THE COLD SOAKED GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE RAIN
INITIALLY FREEZING ON CONTACT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF EAST ANCHORAGE
AND UP INTO THE PALMER WASILLA AREA. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE
PRECIPITATION SHADOW ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...MEANING WHAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A
RETURN TO STEADY RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KODIAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF RAIN AND WIND WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF
BREAKS IN INTENSITY BETWEEN WAVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING IN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASED WIND ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A BIT OF A RAIN SHADOW ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN
MOUNTAINS AND THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE KILBUCK
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE PERSISTENT WARM AIR FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL HOLD THE
MOIST WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING
SEA THROUGH MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ABOUT THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THIS
STORM. THE CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING WITH IT GALE FORCE WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STAY OVER THE BERING DURING THIS
TIME. WHILE IN THIS PATTERN A COUPLE FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE FIRST WILL BE ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE SECOND WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS LARGE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139 150 155 174 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...DK