Storm Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

627 
FZAK62 PAFC 301245
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010145-
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 46N 179W STRENGTHENS TO 980 MB NEAR 58N 171W
MON MORNING...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH MON NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 56N 179E STRENGTHENS
TO 970 MB NEAR 59N 175E...THEN MOVES TO 56N 180 WHILE WEAKENING
TO 981 MB MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 27 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

063 
FZAK62 PAFC 302340
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011430-
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 59N 178E WILL MOVE TO 57N 177E MON AFTERNOON
THEN DISSIPATE MON EVENING AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. 
A 979 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 58N 170W MON MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN TRACK TO 55N 172W
TUE AFTERNOON AT 987 MB.

$$

PKZ411-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
240 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

882 
FZAK62 PAFC 011243
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020230-
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 MB LOW NEAR 59N 175E MOVES TO 54N 175W WHILE WEAKENING TO
988 MB MON NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 50N 161W
WHILE WEAKENING TO 989 MB TUE NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW FORMS ALONG A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT NEAR 59N 171W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO
985 MB. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 55N 167W WHILE WEAKENING TO 990 MB
TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ411-020230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
343 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

615 
FZAK62 PAFC 020009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021415-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 57N 179E WILL MOVE TO 51N 164W AT 989 MB TUE
EVENING THEN TO 48N 156W AT 992 MB WED AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 51N 174E AT 997 MB WED MORNING. A 998 MB LOW FORMS
NEAR 59N 166W WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. N OF 56N...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 36 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

916 
FZAK62 PAFC 021235
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030230-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 175W MOVES TO 50N 163W AT 994 MB TUE
NIGHT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH WED. A 1003 MB KAMCHATKA
LOW MOVES TO 51N 171E TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 51N 176W WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO 977 MB WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 
13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ADVANCING UP COOK INLET ALONG A
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN FROM KODIAK TO
NEAR KACHEMAK BAY...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE STERLING
HIGHWAY AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA BENEATH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AS ONE LOW DEPARTS TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT AND ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...SPREADING RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND
IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE SNOW SPREADING UP COOK INLET AS IT MOVES INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO
PRIMARILY UTILIZE THE NAM FOR ITS SUPERIOR HANDLING OF SMALL
SCALE FEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE AREA OF SNOW CURRENTLY MOVING UP COOK INLET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE MAT-SU THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE
SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 2-4
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG THE
ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND THROUGH HATCHER PASS WHERE SNOWFALL IS
LOCALLY ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE
COPPER BASIN AND NORTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD...WITH A
COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END ON SUNDAY. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF MOVES EAST. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE KEEPS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG
RETURNS TONIGHT WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ACROSS VALLEYS TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS. ON SUNDAY...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE AND THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW AND THEN CHANGES OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS A WARMER AIR MASS
MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN BERING. BRISTOL BAY WILL ALSO SEE SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN LATE SUNDAY...WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
AS THE WARM SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS IS ADVOCATED AHEAD OF THE LOW
THAT ANCHORS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN TODAY
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED CHANNELED TERRAIN
SUCH AS DUTCH HARBOR AND COLD BAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINDS BECOME NORTH TO WEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AT UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER MAINLAND AK ON MON
SLIDES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE BERING TROUGH AND EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME. A NEW PLAYER WILL BE A WAVE FROM A HUDSON BAY LOW THAT WILL
MOVE FROM EXTREME NORTHERN CANADA TO THE BERING STRAIT BY WED.
FROM WED TO FRI MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SUBSEQUENT
MOVEMENT OF THESE LOWS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST BERING ON MON WILL CROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW AK MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AND THEN AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUE BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY WED. THE MON FORECAST CONTINUED A TREND OF USING
THE GFS IN THE WEST AND THE NAM IN THE EAST. BECAUSE OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DEFERRED TO WPC
GUIDANCE.

FOR THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS EXPECT STRONG WINDS ON THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW BY MIDWEEK
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW SIGNIFICANT
WIND ALONG WITH RAIN WILL LAST INTO MIDWEEK. SOUTHWEST AK CAN
EXPECT RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY AND OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH
RAIN AND SNOW INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AFTER WED. SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW ON THE
COAST WITH SNOW INLAND DURING THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 174
         GALES 127 155 165 170-173 175-181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1217 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     SNOW             2 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.74W
11/29/2014  M1.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            750 FEET ELEVATION. AT OMALLEY AND HILLSIDE.

&&

JPW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

AKZ121-302145-
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
1240 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...HIGH WATER ON THE KENAI RIVER...

WATER LEVEL ON THE UPPER KENAI RIVER AT COOPER LANDING HAS FALLEN
STEADILY OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS WHILE THE KENAI RIVER LEVEL AT
THE OUTLET OF SKILAK LAKE HAS CONTINUED TO RISE. THIS MAY INDICATE
SKILAK GLACIER DAM LAKE IS RELEASING. SKILAK GLACIER DAM LAKE LAST
RELEASED IN SEPTEMBER 2013 THEREFORE THE VOLUME OF THE LAKE SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY SMALL AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RELEASES. IF THE
GLACIER DAM LAKE IS RELEASING THE KENAI RIVER COULD POTENTIALLY
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET DEPENDING ON LOCATION BETWEEN THE
SKILAK LAKE OUTLET AND THE MOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LIMITED ICE COVER IS BEING REPORTED ON THE LOWER KENAI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF ICE JAM AND ICE RELATED IMPACTS DURING THIS
EVENT.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RESIDENTS ALONG THE RIVER...PARTICULARLY IN THE KENAI KEYS AND
BIG EDDY AREA...SHOULD BE AWARE THAT KENAI RIVER LEVELS ARE
RISING AND MAY CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1253 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
11/29/2014  M0.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            0.8 INCHES TOTAL, 0.6 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     SNOW             2 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.74W
11/29/2014  M2.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            750 FEET ELEVATION. AT OMALLEY AND HILLSIDE.

&&

JPW