Small Craft Advisory 950, NWS Anchorage, AK

409 
FZAK51 PAFC 301927 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010415-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH MON. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY
MON EVENING AND THEN MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-010415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010415-
PORT VALDEZ-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010415-
VALDEZ ARM-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010415-
CHINIAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010415-
MARMOT BAY-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

013 
FZAK51 PAFC 010003
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011245-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF ON TUE.

$$

PKZ119-011245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR THE COASTS ALONG THE
COAST. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011245-
PORT VALDEZ-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011245-
VALDEZ ARM-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011245-
CHINIAK BAY-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011245-
MARMOT BAY-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
303 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
438 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SNOW HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS COOK INLET AND THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS JUST CROSSED FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA
INTO WESTERN COOK INLET. WEAK UP-INLET FLOW IS ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER SNOW TO FALL OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE AND THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS NEAR HATCHER PASS. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE ON THE KENAI PENINSULA IS HOLDING STEADY NEAR THE
ANCHOR POINT/CLAM GULCH AREA. SNOW HAS ALSO BEGUN FROM CORDOVA TO
VALDEZ AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO THE COPPER
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ANOTHER STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS STORM IS BRINGING
AMPLE WARM AIR AND HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION. AN AMPLIFYING
MID LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD/EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE/SINKING MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHERE
THE MAIN IMPACT IS WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY AND THE DELTA. ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE DELTA...BUT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL RACES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BERING
SEA. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE CURRENT NORTH PACIFIC LOW CENTER WILL SURGE AS IT REDEVELOPS
IN THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN FURTHER
WEST...WITH THE NAM FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE. WE
CONTINUE TO PREFER THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS FOR THIS
FEATURE KNOWING THAT LOWS "PREFER" TO BUILD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR
MOVING OFF THE RUSSIAN LANDMASS INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH THE MATSU VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THEN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH
OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ENTRANCE THIS EVENING BEFORE TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARDS YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WHITTIER AREA
WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG FORMING UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY MONDAY THE
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN END OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA...INLAND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE DELTA AND
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE TROUGH
OVER THE MAINLAND TRACKS EASTWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN DOMAIN. THE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WILL BRIEFLY LET UP THIS
EVENING...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AS TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT AND APPROACH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST. AREAS PRONE TO HOLD ONTO THE
COLDER OFFSHORE FLOW (AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BETHEL...ALONG WITH
THE VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY)...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY (MAINLY NORTH OF KING SALMON) TO
EXPERIENCE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO RAIN ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS IS ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE
LOW THAT ANCHORS OVER BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BRINGING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT. GUSTIER WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BERING/ALEUTIANS...AS AN AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SETUP BEHIND THE BERING LOW. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT MID WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE BERING SEA FROM THE ARCTIC
OCEAN INTERACTS WITH A BERING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC...AN WAVE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF EARLY TUESDAY...AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE ARCTIC TROUGH
BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE MAINLAND...WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS SNOW IN MOST
AREAS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS OVER THE GULF
COAST FROM THIS SYSTEM...WITH DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE OF THE
CHUGACH RANGE KEEPING THE FORECAST AT JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
NOW.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE BERING AND
THIS TROUGH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. FOR THIS REASON WPC WAS
USED HEAVILY FOR THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS AT ITS
LOWEST WITH THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE LOW NEAR THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK. OUT WEST...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SERIES OF LOWS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE THESE MAY FORM.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES 152 AND 155.
MARINE...STORMS 174 411.
 GALES 127 155 165 170 171 172 173 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185 412
       413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK