Storm Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

985 
FZAK61 PAFC 190037
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191445-
337 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 MB LOW OVER SHELIKOF STRAIT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH WED AND PERSISTS THROUGH THU. A 957 MB LOW NEAR 50N 160W
WED EVENING MOVES TO 55N 157W AT 955 MB THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-191445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
337 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
337 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PERSISTS
FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER
AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (WITH ATTENDANT 971 MB SURFACE LOW
LOCATED 140 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR) PERSISTS ALONG AND NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY IS MOVING NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE SITUATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MOVING NORTH AND WEST
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR MOVING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ITS
CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. THIS LOW WILL SERVE
AS AN ANCHOR LOW OF SORTS FOR A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
CURRENTLY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR PLAYER FOR SOUTHERN
ALASKA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
989 MB THIS EVENING TO 975 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND SHELIKOF STRAIT BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
WEAKENS TOMORROW...STRONG RIDGING MOVING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GULF AND INLAND WILL PRODUCE RAPID PRESSURE RISES RESULTING IN
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AND FROM THERE THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS INTO
INLAND AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS
NOW PASSED INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED...EVEN OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN HAS NOW PASSED. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NOW
BECOMES THE NEXT LOW THAT IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA.

THIS NEXT LOW WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS IN A FEW KEY
WAYS...NAMELY THAT A DEEPER DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
EXPERIENCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE SHADOW TOMORROW ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET
INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING...BUT SINCE THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL WELL WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY THE
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS A STORM-FORCE BARRIER
JET ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF PRESSURE
RISES WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH SHOULD
ABRUPTLY SWITCH WINDS IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISING TO NEAR 40
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE AS THE FRONT TRACKS INLAND THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN TO POP UP ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH
CAN FALL OVER AREAS WITH BELOW FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
BACK A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LARGE GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA
TODAY...KEEPING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...AND SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA AND TRACKS TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AS THE SHORTWAVE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
FEATURE WITHIN THE BROADER BERING TROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
TO BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE GULF COAST AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF. MEANWHILE...THE BERING WILL
REMAIN IN A MORE SHOWERY REGIME BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AS A DEEP
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE AKPEN LATE THIS WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 131.
GALE WARNING 119 125 130 132 136 137 138 139 155 165 170 172 174
176 177 178 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CB