Storm Warning 116, NWS Anchorage, AK

663 
FZAK52 PAFC 272349
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281315-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 994 MB LOW AROUND THE COLD BAY AREA MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKINAK TUESDAY. A 986 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF GAMBLE WILL WEAKEN
TO 997 MB AS IT MOVES TO 160 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-281315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E....SW 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. HIGHER GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-281315-
BRISTOL BAY-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-281315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM PORT
MOLLER W...GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-281315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281315-
UNALASKA BAY-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT TOWARD MORNING. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-281315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-281315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-281315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-281315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-281315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-281315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-281315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-281315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
349 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW
45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 40
INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

828 
FZAK52 PAFC 281146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290115-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 15 NM EAST OF SAND POINT MOVES TO 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK WED AFTERNOON. A 995 MB LOW 90 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY LATE WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-290115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-290115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT NW 40 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 16 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-290115-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-290115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-290115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-290115-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-290115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-290115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-290115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-290115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-290115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-290115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-290115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-290115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-290115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-290115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-290115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING IS NOT HARD TO PICK
OUT. A BEAUTY OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WRAPPED UP IN THE FAR
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FULLY MATURE AT THIS
POINT WITH THE OCCLUSION SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDS FROM THE
CHUKCHI PENINSULA EASTWARD THOUGH NORTHERN ALASKA DOWN THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INLAND FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA...EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS
BRINGING MAINLY RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT THE THERMAL
PROFILE SUGGEST SOME SNOW COULD BE MIXING TO THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS
WHICH ARE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERLY MARINE INFLUENCED FLOW. COLD
ADVECTION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA
WITH MOST OF THE AREA COVERED WITH OPEN CELL CUMULUS...INDICATIVE
OF THE THERMAL IMBALANCE BETWEEN THE COLD CONTINENTAL AIR
STREAMING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATER. AN AREA OF ENHANCED
COLD CLOUD TOPS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE OPEN CELL CUMULUS
BEARS DOWN ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SIGNS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE LONGWAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS RELATIVELY QUIET. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS DRY AND CLEAR
WHILE SOME HIGHER CIRRUS FROM THE BERING SYSTEM STREAM OVERHEAD.
THE CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORING SOME EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS...TO CRASH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO LOSE THIS PUNCH BUT ARE STILL GUSTY OUT OF
NORTHERN GAPS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GREAT AGREEMENT NOW THE THE BERING SYSTEM HAS FULLY
MATURED. THERE IS CONSENSUS ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DIRECTLY OVER THE KILBUCK MOUNTAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA LOOKS TO IMPINGE ON THE
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CREATE A NEW SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF THAT
SHORTWAVE BUT HAVE NOT YET CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SURFACE
LOW EXCEPT THAT IT WILL BE IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA/BRISTOL BAY
VICINITY. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME THE
NEW CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALOFT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MAINLAND
TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR SOME OF THE
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. LINGERING MOISTURE OFF THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
AROUND KNIK ARM THIS MORNING BUT WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SEND A FRONT
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND BEGIN TO INCREASING THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD
OVERHEAD FROM THE EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE GULF...HITTING THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW FURTHER
INLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OVERHEAD WILL KEEP
RAIN ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE MAINLAND TODAY THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY NOT SEE
MUCH PRECIPITATION. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR TURN TO SNOW NORTH OF
DILLINGHAM. AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN BRISTOL BAY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
DELTA...PROMOTING A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING RAIN FROM
DUTCH HARBOR EASTWARD TODAY THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SOLID AREA OF GALE FORCE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HIT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON TUESDAY
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT THE CHALLENGE REMAINS IN DETERMINING ITS
INTENSITY. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE EC HAVE BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING A MID 970 MB LOW TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD HOWEVER WAS NOTED BY WPC IN
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS MORNING (AND A MUCH WEAKER EC
ENSEMBLE MEAN) SO THE FORECAST DOES NOT CAPTURE A LOW THIS DEEP
FOR NOW. THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
IN OUR AREA...AS THERE IS STILL CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AOR. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

OVER THE BERING SEA REGION THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
ALEUTIAN LOW ENTERING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN AND SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS LOW THEN APPEARS TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

MTL OCT 14