Small Craft Advisory 848, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
217 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2014

DEVELOPING 995 LOW NEAR CAPE SARICHEF THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
EASTWARD CLOSE TO SITKINAK TUESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT. GALE AND STORM FORCE
NORTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
HAVE DRIVIEN COLD AIR SOUTH TO 45N. VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CU
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING/ALEUTIANS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO JUST
OFF THE RUSSIAN COAST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE FOX ISLANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA SHIELD EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI
PENINSULA EASTWARD THOUGH NORTHERN ALASKA DOWN THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE. FRONT FRONT OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND STALL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE WINDS BACK FROM
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EASTERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN TO
KODIAK ISLAND AS EARLY AS THIS THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY PUSH UP TO SELDOVIA AND HOMER WEST TO ILIAMNA.

RIDGE AXIS OUT WEST MOVES OUT WEST THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY
AS THE FETCH OF GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLIES MOVE TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EXTEND BACK UP ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS. NEXT FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN
CONTINUES ON TO THE TO THE PRIBILOFS AND UNIMAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AREAS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EASTWARD WILL REMAIN DRY TO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILL SOUND WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAKENING FRONT ROTATES WEST NORTHWEST THEN DISSIPATES
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STARTING LATE THIS WEEK THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAINLAND BY THIS
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A LOW
CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS MID WEEK...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST GALE FORCE. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
BERING ON FRIDAY...AND INTO THE GULF BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

THE APPROACHING ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO KEEP THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH RAINY AND WINDY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT LOW PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THE CLEAR AND COLD PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BECOME CLOUDY...WARMER...AND POSSIBLY WET BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
RAINY AND WINDY WEATHER STARTING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. HOW THIS SYSTEM TO SOUTHCENTRAL IS STILL UNKNOWN...AS
LOW PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 165 171 177 181 185
         STORM...155 170 172 173 174 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

OCT 14