Storm Warning 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

083 
FZAK52 PAFC 132337
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141215-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY MON AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA LATE TUE NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUST 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141215-
BRISTOL BAY-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141215-
UNALASKA BAY-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE... 18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
337 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE
25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. AN
ASSOCIATED (STRONG) SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS...WITH ANOTHER (WEAK) HIGH OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT...EVEN EARLY IN
THE FORECAST. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF PROVIDES THE
FIRST AREA OF DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION/STRENGTH AT 00Z (12 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST) BUT THEN THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW FURTHER THAN
THE NAM AND GFS. THE CANADIAN MODELS (GEM REGIONAL AND GEM NH) ARE
FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW INITIALLY. THEY CONTINUE TO
BE FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW INTO MONDAY (WHEN THE LOW MOVES OUT
OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN) AND CONTINUE JUST A LITTLE DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS OT HAS BEEN PERFORMING
BETTER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND HAS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. OVER-ALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NEAR TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY...BEING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...THE KENAI PENINSULA (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION)
AND KODIAK ISLAND. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS THE GRADIENTS IN
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AND LITTLE OR NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GAP WINDS. WE
THEN ENTER A PERIOD OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA INTO TUESDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN
BERING ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOMEWHAT
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA BY LATE MONDAY...PUSHING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS/BERING EARLY TUESDAY...THEN
SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
BREAKS APART ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM (CONTAINING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON VONGFONG) WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO
PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON VONGFONG GET ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF VONGFONG WILL PUSH ACROSS
ATTU AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
AN EASTWARD PATH THAT TRACKS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY LATE SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
BERING SEA.

FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUNTS ALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL NORTHERN GULF COAST THAT WILL BE UNDER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW OFF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL MERGE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE PANHANDLE...BUT BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE REMAINS OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AND BRING STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG WILL BEGIN PHASING WITH THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. ONCE AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED
INTO THE PANHANDLE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ONCE AGAIN DUE IN LARGE PART TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150.
     GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 155 160 165 170 172
             176 177 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/MCLAY OCT 14