Gale Warning 625, NWS Anchorage, AK

684 
FZAK51 PAFC 131429 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

UPDATED ZONES 126 127 128 132 136 137

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140330-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 978 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 984
MB MB WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON. A 973 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 240 NM SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN
TO 982 MB THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION.

$$

PKZ119-140330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140330-
PORT VALDEZ-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140330-
VALDEZ ARM-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EARLY BECOMING W 25 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140330-
CHINIAK BAY-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140330-
MARMOT BAY-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT EARLY BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
629 AM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY BECOMING W 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

545 
FZAK51 PAFC 132339
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141300-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF PORT ALEXANDER WILL MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA LATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 983 MB BY
WED AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW WILL FORM 30 NM EAST OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
AT 996 MB LATE TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
MARMOT BAY-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT MON OCT 13 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA. AN
ASSOCIATED (STRONG) SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS...WITH ANOTHER (WEAK) HIGH OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT...EVEN EARLY IN
THE FORECAST. THE STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF PROVIDES THE
FIRST AREA OF DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION/STRENGTH AT 00Z (12 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST) BUT THEN THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW FURTHER THAN
THE NAM AND GFS. THE CANADIAN MODELS (GEM REGIONAL AND GEM NH) ARE
FURTHER EAST AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW INITIALLY. THEY CONTINUE TO
BE FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW INTO MONDAY (WHEN THE LOW MOVES OUT
OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN) AND CONTINUE JUST A LITTLE DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL AS OT HAS BEEN PERFORMING
BETTER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND HAS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. OVER-ALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NEAR TO A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY...BEING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...THE KENAI PENINSULA (MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION)
AND KODIAK ISLAND. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS THE GRADIENTS IN
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY AND LITTLE OR NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GAP WINDS. WE
THEN ENTER A PERIOD OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND DELTA INTO TUESDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.
ALSO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE EASTERN
BERING ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOMEWHAT
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA BY LATE MONDAY...PUSHING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS/BERING EARLY TUESDAY...THEN
SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
BREAKS APART ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM (CONTAINING THE
EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON VONGFONG) WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO
PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
OF TYPHOON VONGFONG GET ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE POST-TROPICAL REMAINS OF VONGFONG WILL PUSH ACROSS
ATTU AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
AN EASTWARD PATH THAT TRACKS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS WELL AS GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC BY LATE SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
BERING SEA.

FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUNTS ALL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL NORTHERN GULF COAST THAT WILL BE UNDER BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW OFF THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL MERGE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED INTO THE PANHANDLE...BUT BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THE REMAINS OF THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
AND BRING STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG WILL BEGIN PHASING WITH THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. ONCE AGAIN...MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE SHUNTED
INTO THE PANHANDLE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF
COAST ONCE AGAIN DUE IN LARGE PART TO BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150.
     GALE WARNING 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 155 160 165 170 172
             176 177 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG/MCLAY OCT 14