Storm Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

094 
FZAK51 PAFC 031147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040045-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 976 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WEAKENS TO 984 MB
FRI EVENING AS IT CURVES TO THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND THEN MOVES
INLAND. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SLOWLY WEAKENS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW INTENSIFIES TO 992 MB AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH OF
CAPE SAINT ELIAS SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ119-040045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-040045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-040045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-040045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-040045-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-040045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-040045-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-040045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-040045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-040045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-040045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-040045-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS 5
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-040045-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-040045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-040045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-040045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-040045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
158 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE ARCTIC ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THIS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND BRING COLDER AIR WITH IT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND GET ABSORBED INTO
THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS MOVING NORTHWARD
AND IS EVERY BIT AS STRONG AS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA. PART OF THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IS THAT THE MODELS
ARE BRINING THE MOISTURE FARTHER WEST WHICH MEANS THAT THERE WILL
BE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALL KEEPING THE LARGE BERING SEA RIDGE IN PACE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN PUSHING IT SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE NEXT LOW AND
FRONT MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA FROM THE WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE STRONG LOW IN THE GULF WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SPREADING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL SEE
SNOW DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX
WITH OR TURN TO RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BASIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER THE PASSES SUCH AS CHICKALOON PASS ON THE GLENN HIGHWAY
AND MACLAREN PASS ON THE DENALI HIGHWAY WILL LIKELY STAY SNOW AND
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL SEE RAIN DEVELOP TOMORROW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE THE RAIN TURN TO SNOW TOMORROW
EVENING AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND PALMER-WASILLA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE AREA WILL BRING SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER INTO AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS ARE UNDER A FAIRLY TIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING IN DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ARE SEEING SOME CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN
FROM A WEAKENING FRONT THAT IS IN THE AREA. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING IN
STRONG WINDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR NEXT
WEEK. YESTERDAY...THE MODELS WERE HINTING AT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND WHICH
WOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A COLD PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
IMPACTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THAT LOOK UNLIKELY NOW. THE FIRST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA WHERE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE HALTED WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A SURFACE LOW
TRAPPED IN THIS TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT DROPS SOUTH. AS THE LOW WEAKENS...THE REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON PHANFONE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN...WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PHASE WITH THIS WEAKENING LOW.
MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON PHANFONE UNDERGOING RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
ON THE OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE LOW...THE CLUSTER OF THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THIS
SOLUTION.

WHAT THIS WILL ALL MEAN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA
WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...CLEARER
SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. CLOUD
COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 131-136 138 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

OCT 14