Small Craft Advisory 866, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
536 AM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS MORNING IS A 969 MB LOW OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. WESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING...WITH A LINGERING
POCKET OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN BERING AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH SNOW FALLING OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. SNOW
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY/DELTA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INLAND...WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY
COAST AS WARMER AIR MOVES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE...THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS IMMINENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS AND ARE ALL FAIRLY CLOSE NOW WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE BERING LOW AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AKPEN TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A GEM/NAM COMBINATION IN EARLIER PERIODS FOR
ENHANCED DETAIL BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A GFS/EC APPROACH
FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
HELPS TO LIMIT INLAND AREAS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THEN
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
MORNING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND NEAR VALDEZ WHERE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A BIT LONGER. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THOSE LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN PASS AND THOMPSON PASS. ONE
OTHER AREA OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK THAT WILL SEE A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND
KACHEMAK BAY. A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF
KODIAK THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH
OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RESULTING
ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA.
THUS...PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOMER BLUFF. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH. SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
BERING LOW SLIDES INTO THE GULF AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
OVERHEAD.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND THE DELTA AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND THE BERING
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BY
SUNDAY AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK AROUND BRISTOL BAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUE THROUGH FRI)...
THIS TIME PERIOD STARTS WITH A STRONG AND VERY MERIDIONAL JET
CENTERED OVER THE BERING. IT ENTERS OUR DOMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AT 170 KTS. IT MAKES A SHARP TURN OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA BEFORE DIVING QUICKLY DOWN TO NEAR 35N. IT
THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND PLOWS INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST AT AROUND 145 KTS. THIS JET PAINTS THE STORY OF OUR
PATTERN IN THIS TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE STRONG
WESTERLY PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MODEST STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TWO...THE "DIVE" DOWN TO 35N WILL ALLOW PLENTY
OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF AK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DEEPEN AND ENTRENCH THIS TROUGH
THERE. THREE...THE JET SUPPORTING THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
OF THE MAINLAND. SO WHILE THE MAINLAND WILL HAVE SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON THROUGH FRIDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE PACIFIC JET CRANKS UP TO 200
KTS AND BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL. THIS CUTS OFF A CLOSED HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC. THIS CLOSED HIGH WORKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK LOW
OVER THE GULF OF AK TO FORM A MODIFIED VERSION OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN. SO...MOST OF THE "ACTIVE" WEATHER WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE BERING SEA...BUT EVEN OUT THERE THINGS DON'T APPEAR OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH JUST MINIMUM GALES. THE KEY TO THE PATTERN WILL BE
FIGURING OUT HOW THE STRONG JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW IN THE
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG PHASING LOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND NEAR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 121
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 150 155 165 170 172 174 176 181
					  185 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

CB/MO NOV 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1203 PM AKDT SAT NOV 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     SNOW             HOMER                   59.64N 151.52W
11/01/2014  E6.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
            FALLEN IN TOWN WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE BLUFF.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKDT SAT NOV 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     SNOW             8 NW HOMER              59.72N 151.68W
11/01/2014  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER MEASURED 4 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR WITH HEAVY SNOW
            STILL FALLING. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 PM AKDT SAT NOV 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     SNOW             HOMER                   59.64N 151.52W
11/01/2014  E0.0 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT SAYS THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
            FALLEN IN TOWN...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW ON THE HOMER
            BLUFF. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

&&

MCLAY