Gale Warning 692, NWS Anchorage, AK

432 
FZAK52 PAFC 012355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021300-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 MB LOW AROUND 85NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN WILL MOVE TO
AROUND 40 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT HEIDEN SUN AFTERNOON WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT
MOVES NEAR 50 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY.

$$

PKZ150-021300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021300-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021300-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH UNIMAK PASS. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING N
OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-021300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
436 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM CENTER NEAR SAINT PAUL
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CENTER WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH WERE OBSERVED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
NEAR 85 MPH IN UNALASKA BAY THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS EAST THROUGH BRISTOL BAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
SPREADING NORTH IN BRISTOL BAY...AND AS OF NOON RAIN WAS REPORTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN AK PEN WITH SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE
WESTERN CAPES. TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH
OF KODIAK IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG UPPER WAVE IS
MOVING OVER THE AREA (MARINE 150). AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF AND WEAK SURFACE CENTER SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN ARE
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF WITH SOME SPILL
OVER SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE KENAI/CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN MODEL CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ITS EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVERALL AND DID
INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...SO WILL BE LEANING THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGES. WILL ALSO INCORPORATE SOME
GEM REGIONAL/NAM FOR MESOSCALE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
KENAI TONIGHT WITH SOME SPILL OVER SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
CHUGACH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES WEST INTO COOK INLET FOLLOWED BY A LULL ON SAT MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
THE TURNAGAIN WINDS TO COME BACK UP. STEADY RAIN WITH SNOW MIX
SHOULD SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR KODIAK ISLAND HEADS TOWARD THE COAST. THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COASTS AS
INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD DAMPEN PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST. BETTER SHOT AT RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
WILL OCCUR LATER SAT WAS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. SHOWERS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THE PUSH
NORTH TONIGHT INTO THE BRISTOL BAY MAINLAND WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT INLAND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
OVERRUNNING WARM AIR AHEAD OF FRONT WILL INCREASE THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT THIS EVENING NORTH OF KING SALMON AS THE COLD SURFACE
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO RAIN AND
BECOME SHOWERY ALONG THE COASTS AND MIXED INLAND AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL DRYING OVER THE SW
MAINLAND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE AK PEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
HIGH SEAS GENERATED BY THIS LOW COUPLED WITH HIGH TIDES TONIGHT
WILL PROBABLY CREATE SOME ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS IN BRISTOL BAY
COAST FROM PORT HEIDEN TO GOOD NEWS BAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THROUGH SAT AND SUN. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY REGIME AS
NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATER TODAY FOR THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION  TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW WILL START TO MIX IN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (TUE THROUGH FRI)...THIS TIME PERIOD STARTS
WITH A STRONG AND VERY MERIDIONAL JET CENTERED OVER THE BERING. IT
ENTERS OUR DOMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT 170 KTS. IT MAKES
A SHARP TURN OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA BEFORE DIVING
QUICKLY DOWN TO NEAR 35N. IT THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
PLOWS INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AT AROUND 145 KTS. THIS JET
PAINTS THE STORY OF OUR PATTERN IN THIS TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL
REASONS. ONE...THE STRONG WESTERLY PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MODEST STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TWO...THE "DIVE" DOWN
TO 35N WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF COLD AIR TO SPILL INTO THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DEEPEN AND
ENTRENCH THIS TROUGH THERE. THREE...THE JET SUPPORTING THIS TROUGH
WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND. SO WHILE THE MAINLAND WILL
HAVE SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER...NO MAJOR STORMS APPEAR ON THE
HORIZON THROUGH FRIDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE PACIFIC JET CRANKS UP TO 200
KTS AND BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL. THIS CUTS OFF A CLOSED HIGH OVER
THE ARCTIC. THIS CLOSED HIGH WORKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK LOW
OVER THE GULF OF AK TO FORM A MODIFIED VERSION OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN. SO...MOST OF THE "ACTIVE" WEATHER WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE BERING SEA...BUT EVEN OUT THERE THINGS DON'T APPEAR OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH JUST MINIMUM GALES. THE KEY TO THE PATTERN WILL BE
FIGURING OUT HOW THE STRONG JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE LOW IN THE
GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG PHASING LOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND NEAR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. DUE TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 174
	GALE WARNING 119 120 130 132 139 150 155 165 170 171 173 175-185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC/MO OCT 14