Small Craft Advisory 855, NWS Anchorage, AK

635 
FZAK52 PAFC 301200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310045-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW 290 NM S OF SHEMYA WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB AS IT MOVES TO 240 NM N OF ADAK THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 170 NM E OF SAINT PAUL AT 968 MB EARLY
SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-310045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-310045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT NW FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-310045-
BRISTOL BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
1 FOOT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-310045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-310045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-310045-
UNALASKA BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ172-310045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-310045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-310045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-310045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN THE EVENING BUILDING TO
27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-310045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-310045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-310045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-310045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-310045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-310045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-310045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CU OVER THE
GULF WITH SEVERAL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. A SHORT WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN COOPER RIVER BASIN. THE RIDGE IS STILL
HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA DIGS.

SURFACE...
OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA(MAT) VALLEY WITH AREAS OF FINE GLACIAL SILT BEING
OBSERVED. SHOWERS WITH WAVES ROTATING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WERE STARTING TO IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

OUT WEST...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE AK PEN. WINDS
SHIFTED TO A SW DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SW MAINLAND GENERALLY HAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE DELTA WAS THE EXCEPTION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A A WEAK TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM)...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS FAVORED
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY AREA AND TIMEFRAME. IN THE EAST...THE GEM
REGIONAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND
RESULTANT MESOSCALE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND MAT VALLEY. THE
GFS/EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SOMEWHAT REASONABLE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF WESTWARD SOLUTION IS A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH THE STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THU AND FRI. THE OTHER MODELS(GFS/NAM/GEM
GLOBAL) ALL HAVE SIMILAR PRESSURES BUT CARRY THE LOW FURTHER EAST BY
FRI AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU WITH SLIGHTER
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS THE KENAI...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATSU FRI AND SAT AS A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PEN AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
MAT VALLEY...SO EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW WINDS AGAIN ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND MAT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS (NEG ANCHORAGE TO
WHITTIER) WILL INCREASE THU AND PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BERING
LOW REACHES THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THEN ADVANCES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE LARGE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES UNDER A STRONG
UPPER JET AS IT MOVES TO NEAR AMCHITKA IN THE UPPER 970S/LOWER
980S THU MORNING THEN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE 960S OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON LOW POSITIONING.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ALEUTIANS(E OF KISKA) FOR THU. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WARNING
LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH UNALASKA AT THIS POINT AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EVEN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT (INCLUDING FROM THE ENSEMBLES)
YESTERDAY...THERE STILL MANAGED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PROJECTED LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE BERING ON FRIDAY...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A DISTINCT TRIPLE POINT LOW OR WEAK WAVE OVER THE GULF
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE GULF COAST (WHICH REMAINS RAINY THROUGH NEXT WEEK) BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THAT DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH RANGE WILL KEEP THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BERING LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SETUP WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
THE GULF COAST WITH GENERALLY A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ONCE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED AGAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SIBERIAN LOW IS STILL PROJECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE BERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK...DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
NEXT WEEK.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 187 AND 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175 176 177.
         STORM 170 171 172 173 174.
         GALE 127 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC/DEK OCT 14