Gale Warning 586, NWS Anchorage, AK

438 
FZAK62 PAFC 301200
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310145-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW NEAR 48N 174E WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 56N 178W THIS EVENING.
THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO NEAR 57N 165W AT 968 MB EARLY SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-310145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-310145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-310145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-310145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT SW 25 TO 40 KT S OF 56N.
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 25 TO 40 KT N OF 57N. SEAS
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

027 
FZAK62 PAFC 302354
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311430-
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 179W MOVES TO 56N 168W AT 967 MB FRI
EVENING. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 57N 163W AT 978 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-311430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ412-311430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-311430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-311430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
354 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...EXCEPT SW WIND 25 TO 45 KT S OF 57N.
SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

382 
FZAK62 PAFC 311153
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010145-
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 56N 173W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 162W AT THE SAME
STRENGTH EARLY SAT MORNING AND THEN TO NEAR 57N 165W AS IT WEAKENS
TO 983 MB EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010145-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
353 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT...EXCEPT E 25 TO 40 KT N OF 56N. SEAS
15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 312345
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011330-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 MB LOW NEAR 57N 167W WILL MOVE TO 57N 159W AND WEAKEN TO
986 MB SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA SAT THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ411-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
345 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CU OVER THE
GULF WITH SEVERAL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. A SHORT WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN COOPER RIVER BASIN. THE RIDGE IS STILL
HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA DIGS.

SURFACE...
OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA(MAT) VALLEY WITH AREAS OF FINE GLACIAL SILT BEING
OBSERVED. SHOWERS WITH WAVES ROTATING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WERE STARTING TO IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

OUT WEST...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE AK PEN. WINDS
SHIFTED TO A SW DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SW MAINLAND GENERALLY HAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE DELTA WAS THE EXCEPTION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A A WEAK TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM)...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS FAVORED
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY AREA AND TIMEFRAME. IN THE EAST...THE GEM
REGIONAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND
RESULTANT MESOSCALE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND MAT VALLEY. THE
GFS/EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SOMEWHAT REASONABLE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF WESTWARD SOLUTION IS A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH THE STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THU AND FRI. THE OTHER MODELS(GFS/NAM/GEM
GLOBAL) ALL HAVE SIMILAR PRESSURES BUT CARRY THE LOW FURTHER EAST BY
FRI AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU WITH SLIGHTER
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS THE KENAI...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATSU FRI AND SAT AS A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PEN AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
MAT VALLEY...SO EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW WINDS AGAIN ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND MAT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS (NEG ANCHORAGE TO
WHITTIER) WILL INCREASE THU AND PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BERING
LOW REACHES THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THEN ADVANCES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE LARGE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES UNDER A STRONG
UPPER JET AS IT MOVES TO NEAR AMCHITKA IN THE UPPER 970S/LOWER
980S THU MORNING THEN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE 960S OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON LOW POSITIONING.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ALEUTIANS(E OF KISKA) FOR THU. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WARNING
LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH UNALASKA AT THIS POINT AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EVEN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT (INCLUDING FROM THE ENSEMBLES)
YESTERDAY...THERE STILL MANAGED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PROJECTED LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE BERING ON FRIDAY...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A DISTINCT TRIPLE POINT LOW OR WEAK WAVE OVER THE GULF
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE GULF COAST (WHICH REMAINS RAINY THROUGH NEXT WEEK) BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THAT DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH RANGE WILL KEEP THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BERING LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SETUP WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
THE GULF COAST WITH GENERALLY A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ONCE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED AGAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SIBERIAN LOW IS STILL PROJECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE BERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK...DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
NEXT WEEK.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 187 AND 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175 176 177.
         STORM 170 171 172 173 174.
         GALE 127 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC/DEK OCT 14