Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

139 
FZAK52 PAFC 241249
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 60 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL WEAKENS TO 1001 MB SAT NIGHT
150 NM WEST OF GAMBELL AND THEN DISSIPATES. A 974 MB NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 375 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT SAT NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT AFFECTS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN BERING FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-250300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-250300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-250300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-250300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-250300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-250300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-250300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-250300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-250300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-250300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING W
OF ATKA. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON E OF
ATKA. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-250300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING W OF
ATKA. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 30 KT E OF ATKA. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-250300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-250300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-250300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-250300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-250300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-250300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND W. 
.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND W. 
.SAT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.

.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
246 PM AKST THU JAN 23 2014

CORRECTED TEXT

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM 20N. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...WHILE NOT NECESSARILY ATYPICAL...IS RATHER UNPRECEDENTED IN
TERMS OF PERSISTENCE. THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT
ITS DOMINANCE...AND WILL ACTUALLY BUILD INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK IS
RAPIDLY TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR ALASKA...WITH ANOTHER
SIMILAR FEATURE TAKING SHAPE NEAR 50N. A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH A 975 HPA LOW CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG IT IN THE VICINITY OF UNIMAK PASS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COASTAL JET REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
THE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 50N WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
THE COAST...WITH RAIN SHOWERS INLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SMALL SCALE DETAILS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF REPRESENT THE MOST
STABLE SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...SO THEY WILL BE THE
FAVORED GUIDANCE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME LOCAL
WRF UTILIZED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND WET
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO COOK INLET TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
MORE RAIN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING INLAND...GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...INLAND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW TRACKS INLAND...BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE ANCHORAGE BOWL FRIDAY
MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. RAIN WILL LARGELY END DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WEST OF GLENNALLEN. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK WESTWARD AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MORE
RAINFALL OVERSPREADING INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND MOIST SURFACE LAYER...FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW TRACKS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE LATE
MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH BEHIND THE RAIN. ANOTHER
FRONT TRACKS IN SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION...WITH SHOWER THREATS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER UNIMAK PASS THIS EVENING WILL MAKE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE LOW WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING LOCATIONS FROM
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND DUTCH HARBOR WEST...WITH GENERAL RAIN
EASTWARD. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
SNOW SHOWER THREATS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE
INCREASED RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL DRY THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS UNDER THE THREAT OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS DURING THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY...THE DEEP NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTH...WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWER THREATS
INCREASING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY
STRONG SIGNAL AMONG THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF A
BLOCKING HIGH FORMING DIRECTLY OVER ALASKA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOULD SUCH A SCENARIO UNFOLD...DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN. REGARDLESS...THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR A RETURN TO WINTERY WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS LONG AS
THE PERSISTENT VORTEX REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 128 130 131 160 165 170 179 180 181 185.
         STORM 119.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER JAN 14