Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

314 
WGAK68 PAFC 242205 CCA
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 PM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014


AKZ131-250700-
/X.COR.PAFC.FF.A.0001.140124T2110Z-140125T0700Z/
/00000.0.OT.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1210 PM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING FROM
KEYSTONE CANYON TO MILE POST 5 OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* UNTIL 10 PM AKST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION: ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO
  MILE POST 5.

* MULTIPLE LANDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY BETWEEN
  MILES 12 AND 46...ONE OF WHICH SLID ACROSS THE LOWE RIVER. THIS
  SLIDE IS BACKING UP WATER ON THE LOWE RIVER AND MAY RESULT IN A
  FLASH FLOOD WHEN IT RELEASES. THE FLOOD WAVE MAY BREAK WITH
  LITTLE TO NO WARNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING
IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IN
THE EVENT THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

637 
WGAK68 PAFC 250623
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
923 PM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

AKZ131-251600-
/X.EXT.PAFC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140125T1600Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
923 PM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKST SATURDAY ALONG
THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO MILE POST 5...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* UNTIL 7 AM AKST SATURDAY

* LOCATION: ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO 
  MILE POST 5. 

* MULTIPLE AVALANCHES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
  BETWEEN MILES 12 AND 46...ONE OF WHICH SLID ACROSS THE LOWE
  RIVER AND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED UP WATER ON THE RIVER. THE
  WATER HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO SLOWLY RELEASE BUT A SUDDEN RAPID
  RELEASE COULD STILL RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD...WHICH COULD OCCUR
  WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLASH
FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IN
THE EVENT THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

628 
WGAK68 PAFC 251536
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
636 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

AKZ131-252200-
/X.EXT.PAFC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140125T2200Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
636 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO MILE POST
5...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. 

* UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON

* LOCATION: ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO 
  MILE POST 5. 

* MULTIPLE AVALANCHES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY 
  BETWEEN MILES 12 AND 46...ONE OF WHICH SLID ACROSS THE LOWE 
  RIVER AND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED UP WATER ON THE RIVER. THE 
  WATER HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO SLOWLY RELEASE BUT A SUDDEN 
  RAPID RELEASE COULD STILL RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD...WHICH 
  COULD OCCUR WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FLASH
FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IN
THE EVENT THAT FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

343 
WGAK68 PAFC 251820
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
920 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014


AKZ131-251930-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-140125T2200Z/
/00000.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
920 AM AKST SAT JAN 25 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO MILE POST 5...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
FROM KEYSTONE CANYON TO MILE POST 5 HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
 
MOST OF THE WATER TRAPPED BEHIND THE AVALANCHE SNOW DAM HAS
DRAINED.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI JAN 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF
MAINLAND AK THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SIBERIA EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE BERING AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A 150 KT JET OVER KODIAK ISLAND HEADING
GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS IS ACCOMPANYING THE
FIREHOSE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK...KENAI
PENINSULA...AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND
ANOTHER IS AT 40 N WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN BERING. REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST..AND HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A DEEP
LOW IS AROUND 40 N WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST DAY...DIVERGE BRIEFLY
AND THEN CONSOLIDATE BY DAY 3.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BERING DISSIPATES SAT.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM A KAMCHATKA LOW THEN ENTERS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...DISSIPATES AND IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUN.
THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOFS STEADILY WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN BERING ON SAT AND THEN DISSIPATES.

THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND
TODAY. A LINGERING NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF BECOMES A FRONT THAT MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
THEN WEAKENS....AND IN SO DOING CUTS OFF THE FIREHOSE.

THE DEEP LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AT 40 N WILL ELONGATE
AS IT MOVES NORTH...SEND A WEAK LOW INTO THE EASTERN BERING ON
SUN...WHILE THE MAIN PORTION IS ABSORBED BY A NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW.
THE LATTER LOW THEN MOVES TO AROUND 50 N WELL SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
ON MON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FINAL LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST LATER ON MON.

THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE EC FOR CONSISTENCY...WITH THE GFS AND NAM
INCORPORATED IN THE EARLY PERIODS FOR DETAIL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...COLD AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL
CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. A
FRONT/TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS/LOWS WILL BRING AREAS
OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLDER AIR IS WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL
AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. OTHERWISE DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SWING OVER THE
MAINLAND FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BRINGING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
TO MOST AREAS. MILD TEMPERATURES...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...RAIN WITH WIND IN CHANNELED TERRAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE
WESTWARD MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WILL SPREAD SOME RAIN OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
END PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA ON SAT. SHOWERS OVER KODIAK SAT NIGHT
AND SUN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIECE OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING. FINALLY...RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE COAST ON MON WITH THE FINAL
FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED PATTERN REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY WARM. WHILE THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS BEING BROKEN DOWN BY
GUIDANCE...IT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A REX BLOCK. A CLOSED UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL NORTHWARD OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC LOOKS TO SLOW THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN. THE SENSIBLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NOT AS MUCH WIND/PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 125 128 130 131 138 150 155 170 172 173 174 180 181
               185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS/ML JAN 14