Small Craft Advisory 698, NWS Anchorage, AK

056 
FZAK51 PAFC 132310
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141145-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
AND DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF SUN MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-141145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 35 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT IN THE EVENING NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141145-
PORT VALDEZ-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141145-
VALDEZ ARM-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT EARLY BECOMING SW WIND
15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT SE 35 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141145-
CHINIAK BAY-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141145-
MARMOT BAY-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
310 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
613 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PRETTY BASIC TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE
WAY IT HAS BEEN MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT
RUNS UP THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAM RUNS FROM JAPAN TO
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT RUNS ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND RIDGE

THE SURFACE MAP HAS THE LARGE 965 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WHICH IS THE LOW THAT REMAINS FROM THE MERGING OF THE EXTRA
TROPICAL LOW WITH THE OLD BERING SEA LOW. THE MAIN FRONT EXTENDS
OUT OF THIS LOW AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAVES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY WHICH ARE PRODUCING ENHANCED RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SINCE THE MODELS LOCKED INTO THE MOVEMENT OF THE OLD EXTRA
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA THEY HAVE HAD A NUMBER
OF VERY GOOD RUNS IN A ROW. THEY ARE ALL SHOWING THE SAME MOVEMENT
OF THE FEATURES WITH THE NAM BEING FAVORED DUE TO ITS RESOLUTION
AND ABILITY TO HANDLE THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A LOT OF RAINFALL IS HEADING INTO THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
WEATHER FRONT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND IN
NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SEWARD AREA FROM THE 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT
IS EXPECTED IN THAT REGION.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
BEING IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE WHERE THERE IS A HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA INCLUDING THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE WILL LIKELY SEE A MUCH
SHORTER DURATION OF WINDS AS WELL AS WINDS THAT ARE NOT AS STRONG
AS TURNAGAIN ARM. WINDS IN THE LOWER HILLSIDE ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
CLOSE TO 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AROUND THE REST OF
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPROVE BY LATE IN THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND BRING MORE WINDS AND RAIN...BUT NOT AS MUCH
AS TODAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LARGE LOW WILL BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE DUTCH HARBOR
AREA. THESE WINDS IN THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA WILL BE RATHER LONG IN
DURATION AND ONCE THEY INCREASE THEY WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND COLD BAY WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STRONG LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE BERING LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
FINALLY FALLING IN LINE WITH THE EC SOLUTION IN BRINGING THE LOW
NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A STOUT UPPER RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE END RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO LONGWAVE FEATURES REMAINS
FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MEANWHILE...A SHOWERY PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE BERING BENEATH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 187.
         FLOOD ADVISORY 125.
MARINE...GALE 150-165 171 172 177-180 185.
		 STORM 170 173-176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

EZ/CB SEP 14