Small Craft Advisory 683, NWS Anchorage, AK

810 
FZAK52 PAFC 091123
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100015-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW CENTERED 290 NM W OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 220 NM
NW OF ADAK EARLY THU MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ150-100015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-100015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-100015-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-100015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-100015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-100015-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-100015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-100015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-100015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-100015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-100015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-100015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-100015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-100015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-100015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-100015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-100015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

784 
FZAK52 PAFC 092311
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101200-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW 270 NM NORTH SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO LOW 250 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AT 988 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-101200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-101200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-101200-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-101200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-101200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-101200-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-101200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-101200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-101200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-101200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-101200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-101200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-101200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-101200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-101200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-101200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-101200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK UPPER-LVL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS SPILLING ACROSS IT. A WEAK FRONT/TROF
IS STALLING JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND...AND LIFT FROM THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
SW AK SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAINS. SOME OF THIS PRECIP HAS ALSO POKED
INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA/COOK INLET REGIONS...THOUGH WITH LOW AND
MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY PER 12Z PANC SOUNDING...MUCH OF
THIS IS VIRGA SAVE FOR A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES. AN UPPER-LVL HIGH
CENTER NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE IN THE NE PART OF THE STATE IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. A LARGE 987 MB LOW 200 MI N OF ADAK IS SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL BRUSH THE CHAIN AND PRIBILOFS
AS MOISTURE PINWHEELS AROUND THE LOW. WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS CUTTING OFF INTO AN UPPER- LOW OVER THE N
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND IS MOVING SOUTH. ALSO OF NOTE IS TROPICAL
STORM FENGSHEN NEAR 32N 140E OFF JAPAN'S COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE IS ADEQUATE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PICTURE BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING/PLACEMENTS OF
SOME OF THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE COMING DAYS. THE LOW FORMING
OVER THE N KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS SHOWN DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO THE
WESTERN REACHES OF THE BERING SEA AND ABSORBING THE RESIDUAL LOW N
OF ADAK ON TUE. A CONSOLIDATED NEW SURFACE LOW CENTER FORMS AND LOOKS
TO BE 200 MI N OF SHEMYA ON WED...WHICH THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD TO
ABOUT 150 MI N OF KISKA AROUND 990 MB EARLY THU. THE LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER-RIDGING MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AK IS SHOWN AMPLIFYING
AS IT APPROACHES THE ALCAN BORDER AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TUE...AMPLIFYING IN PART AS IT MERGES WITH THE UPPER HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE ITSELF PUSHES INTO NW CANADA MID WEEK AS THE
BERING SYSTEM DIGS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD TO INCORPORATE MORE OF THE
AOR UNDER IT'S DOMINANCE. THE TREND IS FOR A STRONGER AND DEEPER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND WHICH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON. THE REMNANTS OF
FENGSHEN ARE STILL DEPICTED GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-UPPER LVL
FLOW OF THE JET STREAM AND APPROACHING THE VICINITY OF 40N 160E ON
WED...THOUGH THE 08/00Z ECMWF IS AROUND 350 MI AHEAD OF THE GFS
AND GEM AT THAT TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN AND HOW IT GETS ENVELOPED WITHIN THE BERING
SYSTEM. GIVEN POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY...HAVE TRIED TO
KEEP CHANGES TO A MINIMUM IN THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH
SOME HODGEPODGE NUDGING TO THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
LIGHT RAIN TODAY FOR KODIAK ISLAND WHICH IS IN PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLING FRONT...BUT UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS THE PRECIP
MOVED THROUGH SW AK HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THIS COULD MEAN
JUST SPRINKLES WILL RESULT. A BETTER CHANCE OF STEADY RAIN EXISTS
ON TUE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH WITH SURFACE WAVES AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY POKING NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. IT
MAY BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND FOCUSED MORE ON THE EASTERN
END OF THE ISLAND HOWEVER. ONLY PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED ON WED AS
THERE WILL BE A TOUCH OF OFF-SHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT MOVING AWAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW AND MID LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP BUT
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY DEPICTS A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
UPSTREAM IN THE N PAC THAT IS PEGGED TO APPROACH AS THE UPPER
RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. SOME GUSTY TURNAGAIN/PORTAGE VALLEY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE 850 MB FLOW TENDS TO STAY SE THROUGH
WED. HOWEVER DOWNSLOPING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A DEEPER S TO
SW 700 TO 500 MB FLOW THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. STRONGEST UPWARD OMEGA WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH TO
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHERE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST...BUT ALL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR SOME STEADY PRECIPITATION THROUGH WED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
PIECEMEAL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE FLOW. THE STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS SHOULD BE OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH
SW AK NOT BEING IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THOSE DYNAMICS TO
ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...
LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AOR DUE TO
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE. THE RAINS WILL BE TAPERING TO LIGHTER SHOWERS
AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CHAIN. THE
REINFORCED LOW WHICH THEN DRIFTS BACK DOWN TOWARDS SHEMYA ON WED
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE A BIT MORE OVER THE
WESTERN CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST... (THU TO NEXT MON)
THE PARENT LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING TO START THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THIS LOW STARTS TO INTERACT
WITH A 120 KT SUB- TROPICAL JET...MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME FORM
OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING ON THU. THIS WILL
HELP TO SHIFT THE PARENT LOW CENTER A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
FENGSHEN WILL TRACK QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
PARENT LOW AND FENGSHEN WELL AT ALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FLIP-
FLOP BETWEEN FROM A LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 970MB TO ITS
MOST RECENT RUN WITH A 945MB LOW. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN
SHOWING THE LOW PHASING BUT RATHER JUST "PIN-WHEELING" THROUGH THE
PATTERN. THE 18Z GFS RUN DID SHOW A 5-10MB DROP IN SURFACE
PRESSURE THOUGH AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS STRONGER YET. WITH THIS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WE OPTED TO NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AND JUST LEAN IT TOWARDS THE STRONGER EC MODEL AS IT
TENDS TO HANDLE THESE TROPICAL INTERACTIONS BETTER. THE GFS IS
TYPICALLY A BIT SLOWER TO CATCH ON TO BIGGER AMPLIFICATIONS IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR. THIS AMPLIFICATION
WILL MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO
NUDGE WINDS FROM THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL TOWARDS GALE (IF THE EC
WERE A PERFECT- PROG...THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST STORM FORCE LOW)
LEVEL LATE THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING. DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MAINLAND...THIS WOULD CREATE A SHARP RIDGE THAT COULD CREATE A
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR MANY PLACES ON THU AND EVEN FRI
MORNING. AFTER THAT THOUGH...A STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO USHER IN
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...173 174 176 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

JAM/MSO