Small Craft Advisory 682, NWS Anchorage, AK

739 
FZAK52 PAFC 082301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091200-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW 180 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO AROUND 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY.

$$

PKZ150-091200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091200-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-091200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091200-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-091200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT MON SEP 8 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

810 
FZAK52 PAFC 091123
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100015-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW CENTERED 290 NM W OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 220 NM
NW OF ADAK EARLY THU MORNING WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ150-100015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-100015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-100015-
BRISTOL BAY-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-100015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-100015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-100015-
UNALASKA BAY-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-100015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-100015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-100015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-100015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-100015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-100015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-100015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-100015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-100015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-100015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-100015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
323 AM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
257 PM AKDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEAKENS AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF/BRISTOL BAY MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MON AND THEN TO THE
EASTERN GULF TUE. THE DIFFUSE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA LIFTS NORTH AND EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH AS A DEVELOPING CENTER
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA TUE. THE END RESULT WILL BE
BOARD SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF AND MAINLAND TUE.

OUTFLOW WINDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS
MORNING. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM COASTAL SW ALASKA TO
SOUTH OF KODIAK WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. PRECIPITATION WAS
FAIRLY SPARSE AS WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM HAS WAS INTERACTING
WITH VERY DRY UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
ITS HEALS ACROSS THE AK PEN IS THE MORE POTENT FEATURE. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE EVIDENT FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE AK
PEN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND QPF PLACEMENT. AFTERNOON PACKAGES
WILL BE BASED IN PART ON A BLEND OF THE NAM/EC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THE WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT TONIGHT
WILL HELP TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. A
SECONDARY FRONT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
OF RAIN TO THE GULF AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON MON. THE FRONT
WEAKENS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MON NIGHT AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUE AND BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH WED AS THE BERING SEA TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE AREA.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
LIGHT RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHING SW
ALASKA...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WITH POST FRONTAL
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
ANY RESIDUAL GALES ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES SHOULD TREND TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO MON AS THE BERING LOW CONTINUES
TO FILL AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. THERE WILL STILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AS LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT
UPPER-LOW IN THE BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (THU THROUGH MON)...THE PARENT LOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN BERING TO START THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS THIS LOW STARTS TO INTERACT WITH A 120 KT SUB-
TROPICAL JET...MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME FORM OF A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING ON THU. THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT
THE PARENT LOW CENTER A BIT FARTHER EAST AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS
ARE NOT HANDLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW AND
FENGSHEN WELL AT ALL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP BETWEEN
FROM A LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE RANGE OF 970MB TO ITS MOST RECENT RUN
WITH A 945MB LOW. MEANWHILE...THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING THE LOW
PHASING BUT RATHER JUST "PIN-WHEELING" THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE
18Z GFS RUN DID SHOW A 5-10MB DROP IN SURFACE PRESSURE THOUGH AND
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS STRONGER YET. WITH THIS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...WE OPTED TO NOT MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
AND JUST LEAN IT TOWARDS THE STRONGER EC MODEL AS IT TENDS TO
HANDLE THESE TROPICAL INTERACTIONS BETTER. THE GFS IS TYPICALLY A
BIT SLOWER TO CATCH ON TO BIGGER AMPLIFICATIONS IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL
MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TOWARDS THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO NUDGE
WINDS FROM THE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL TOWARDS GALE (IF THE EC WERE A
PERFECT- PROG...THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST STORM FORCE LOW) LEVEL
LATE THU ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING. DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MAINLAND...THIS WOULD CREATE A SHARP RIDGE THAT COULD CREATE A
BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FOR MANY PLACES ON THU AND EVEN FRI
MORNING. AFTER THAT THOUGH...A STRONG FRONT LOOKS TO USHER IN
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 173 174 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC/MO SEP 14