Small Craft Advisory 582, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
609 AM AKDT MON AUG 4 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
BRINGING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK TO THE COAST. WEAK INSTABILITY
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPPER LOW BROUGHT A FEW LIGHTENING
STRIKES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST...RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE WESTERN
AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS A LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA
DIGS SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
BEGINS A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES FROM INTO THE WESTERN
BERING. THE LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE JET STREAM MOVES THIS SYSTEM
EAST BY MIDWEEK WITH THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PUSHES INLAND...HOWEVER SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THIS COLD CORE SYSTEM
KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND SURROUNDING COAST. RAIN TAPERS OFF
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A RIDGING GIVES A SHORT BREAK

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW IN
THE GULF MOVES RAIN ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A SHORT LIVED DRY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE PENINSULA BY THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN. THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW IN THE BERING MOVES ON
AN EASTERLY TRACK. A WET WEEKEND SETS UP ACROSS THE GULF AS THE
FRONT MAKES A PUSH FOR THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE BERING KEEPING LOW STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

KH AUG 14