Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND
TRANSPORTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. AS THE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN.
AT THE SURFACE A 950 MB LOW HAS CROSSED THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS STRONG LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THE SOURCE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. THEY
DO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WHERE THE GFS HOLDS THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC TOGETHER UNTIL AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA...AND
THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SPLIT IT INTO TWO CENTERS IN THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME FRAME THE GFS AND ECMWF CONVERGE AGAIN
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE HIGH WINDS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND
TURNAGAIN ARM WILL PEAK EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RAIN FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS
THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP FLOODING IN THE SEWARD AREA AND HAS PROMPTED
THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SEWARD AREA. AREAS
AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THAT AREA.
IN SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SAME GENERAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
         FLOOD ADVISORY 125.
         BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 195.
MARINE...STORM 119 125 185.
         GALE 129 130 131 132 137 138 150-174 179 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

AKZ101-180700-

...RAIN ON ICE IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL KEEP ROADS SLICK...

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ENDED THE
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA...ROADS REMAIN EXTREMELY SLICK
WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL ON ICY ROADS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW GLEN ALPS          61.12N 149.72W
01/17/2014  M78.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

0152 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE POTTER MARSH      61.06N 149.78W
01/17/2014  M76.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN  61.07N 149.71W
01/17/2014  M84.00 MPH                          AK   PUBLIC

0233 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE POTTER MARSH      61.06N 149.76W
01/17/2014  M75.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WNW GLEN ALPS           61.10N 149.69W
01/17/2014  M93.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
351 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN  61.07N 149.71W
01/17/2014  M95.00 MPH                          AK   PUBLIC

&&

DSTRICKL