Gale Warning 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

758 
FZAK61 PAFC 190016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191500-
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 957 MB LOW NEAR 49N 157W SAT NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 58N 165W AT 972 MB
MON AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF SUN.

$$

PKZ351-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.   

$$

PKZ352-191500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT JAN 18 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 18 FT.   

$$

268 
FZAK61 PAFC 191203
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 957 MB LOW NEAR 49N 157W WILL MOVE TO 54N 161W AT 966 MB LATE
TONIGHT THEN INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A WEATHER FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF TODAY. 

$$

PKZ351-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-200300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

851 
FZAK61 PAFC 200057
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201500-
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 963 MB LOW NEAR 53N 160W WILL MOVE TO 58N 166W AT 972 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ351-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-201500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 19 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 TO 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND
TRANSPORTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. AS THE TROUGH AND RIDGE MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN.
AT THE SURFACE A 950 MB LOW HAS CROSSED THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS STRONG LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT
IS THE SOURCE OF THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEMS IN THE AREA. THEY
DO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WHERE THE GFS HOLDS THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC TOGETHER UNTIL AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA...AND
THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SPLIT IT INTO TWO CENTERS IN THE PACIFIC.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME FRAME THE GFS AND ECMWF CONVERGE AGAIN
AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE HIGH WINDS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND
TURNAGAIN ARM WILL PEAK EARLY THIS EVENING RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RAIN FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS
THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
RAIN WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP FLOODING IN THE SEWARD AREA AND HAS PROMPTED
THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SEWARD AREA. AREAS
AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SEE STEADY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THAT AREA.
IN SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SAME GENERAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
         FLOOD ADVISORY 125.
         BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 195.
MARINE...STORM 119 125 185.
         GALE 129 130 131 132 137 138 150-174 179 180 181.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 14