Small Craft Advisory 392, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
133 PM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SHORT WAVE WHICH WENT THROUGH OVERNIGHT LOWERED SURFACE
PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND PRODUCED BRISK GAP FLOWS
ACROSS THE EASTERN KENAI. MARINE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING OFF THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SW ALASKA.

OUT WEST...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA AND WITH IT
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG. THE MARINE LAYER HAS FINALLY WORKED
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND HAS ALSO MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
BERING SEA SIDE OF THE ALASKA PEN AS FAIR NORTH AS PILOT POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF BRISTOL BAY IS GENERALLY CLEAR.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND. UPPER AIR AND SURFACE
FORECASTS ARE REASONABLE. THE NAM LIKELY WILL BE USED TO CAPTURE
GAP FLOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON SUN AND MON WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPS TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND ALSO INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INLAND. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY
THROUGH SAT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR HOLDING IN PLACE. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD SUBSIDE ON SUN WITH THE INTRUSION OF COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS. STRONG OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN KENAI
WILL SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE SAT MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH MOST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
SAT NIGHT AND SUN. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AS DOWNSLOPE DRYING ACROSS THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WILL HINDER RH RECOVERY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SAT THE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL ALLOW INLAND
AREAS TO POTENTIALLY HIT LOW RH THRESHOLDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
MAY ALSO REDEVELOP ON THE EASTERN KENAI PEN SUN WITH THE ONSET OF
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. STRONG NW WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ALSO FOR KODIAK
ISLAND ON SUN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE
ALONG THE DELTA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER
PROBABLY WILL LIFT SOME INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WORK INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT...THEN PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTH
COAST WITH THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY WINDS SAT NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SAT...BUT COOLING TEMPS
SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND GUSTY GAP LOWS OVER THE INLAND BRISTOL BAY ZONE SAT MAY REACH
CRITICAL VALUES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE BERING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE
SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE IMMINENT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BERING AS RIDGING REMAINS
OVERHEAD.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 125 141 145
AND 161. RED FLAG WATCH 171 (SUN)

RMC MAY 14